Recapping week 16, your boy was 10-6 straight up, 9-7 against the spread, and 7-9 in the over/under. What does all this mean? If you were to bet 5 dollars on every individual game, you would have profited   Remember, parlay bets are fun, but they are risky as hell – so don’t bet what you don’t have. I like to throw down on individual games and take my chance on a combo to see if I can string together a nice win.

Week 17 is by far the hardest weekend to figure because there are some teams who are resting for playoffs, gunning for a final position, playing for a contract, or have emotionally checked out. Be careful on your picks, but I will give you the facts and go with the feel on the pick.  Here’s what we got in week 17!

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills (-3) (O/U 39) Mark Sanchez gets the nod in the season finale in what has been a mess for the Jets this year. Sanchez is trying to erase the memory of the “butt fumble” from potential suitors memories as he plays a Bills squad he carved up at the first of the year. The road team is 8-2 ATS in this series, and I think the trend will continue in this one. I’ll take the Jets to win outright in the under.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots (-10) (O/U 46.5) Motivation game for the Patriots, as in how motivated will they be if Houston wins in the early game? Patriots will get it done, but they have only covered 5 of their last 22 ATS as a double digit favorite, including last weekend at Jacksonville. Look for the Dolphins to keep this within the number, but the Patriots control this game with Ridley late. Pats win, Dolphins cover, give me the over

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) (O/U 41) – I love divisional games! This could be a preview of next weeks wildcard round, which would be in Baltimore. Hard to predict game because so much on the line and “who they want to play next” comes into effect. Ravens will get Ray Lewis back in this one, and they do just enough to get the win. This is the first time that the Bengals have been favored against the Ravens since 2008, so there is that! I like the Ravens to win it in the under

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers (No Line) - No line yet due to injuries. The Browns will be on their 3rd quarterback, and Trent Richardson will be limited. The Steelers will be without Mike Wallace, who probably has played his last game for the black and gold. I don’t really care about the line in this one, I think the Steelers win by double digits in whatever the under ends up being. Typical week 17 blowout.

Houston Texans (-7) vs Indianapolis Colts (O/U 46.5) – How motivated will Chuck Pagano be as he returns tot he sidelines in Indy this weekend since week 3? Houston controls their own destiny and can lock down homefield throughout with a win, while a loss will put them into the 3rd seed and a date with Cincy or Indy next week. The home team has covered the last 5 in this series, and look for upcoming rookie of the year candidate Andrew Luck to have a chance late to win it that comes up short. I’ll take the Colts to cover, Texans to win, and it being over the total.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans (-4) (O/U 42) Believe it or not, I have no idea about this one. The Titans gave up last week against the Packers in Lmbeau, and you’d think they would come out to play in the home finale. I really like Jacksonville to play hard and win this one on the road. Something just tells me that the Titans have emotionally checked out. Jacksonville in the upset in the over.

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants (-7.5) (O/U 46) – Andy Reid’s last game as Eagles coach? He is 60% covering on the road, even better as an underdog. The Giants are a poor home team, only covering 41% at home over the last 14 seasons. The Giants NEED this win, but if the Bears win at Detroit, how motivated will they be? I like the Eagles and Mike Vick’s audition game to play hard and cover the spread – but the Giants win it on a classic Eli Manning 4th quarter drive. I’ll take the under as well

Chicago Bears (-3)  vs Detroit Lions (O/U 45) – The Bears will be hungry to get the W as it puts them in control of the wildcard race. The Lions have Calvin Johnsons record to 2000 yards receiving to play for, will that be a let down? Matt Forte is questionable for the Bears, but looks like he will be a go. I like the Bears to right the ship and get it done on the road in a signature game for Jay Cutler – who will get blasted in this one by the Lions pass rush. I will lay the points with da Bears in the under.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5)  vs Minnesota Vikings (O/U 46) Both teams are looking for the victory as the Pack will clinch #2 seed, while the Vikings will be in the crowded wildcard hunt. The Packers have won 32 of their last 38 games and are 20-8 in that time frame against the spread in December. The Vikings don’t play that well against good teams, so I like the Packers to really send a message in this one. I’ll lay the points with the Packers in the under

Tampa Bay Buccanears vs Atlanta Falcons (No Line) – The Falcons have nothing to play for, as they have clinched #1 throughout the NFC. I expect Tampa to win this game, being a little more hungry to end the season on a positive.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints (-4.5) (O/U 54) – Carolina has been a nice story this second half rebounding nicely, and I’ve said they have been playing better than their record showed. New Orleans stunned Dallas on the road last week in over time. I like Drew Brees to cap the year off with a win, although Newton has a good game and keeps it tight throughout. I’m going to lay the points with the Saints in the under

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos (-16) (O/U 42) – I immediately take out the biggest line of the day and take the points with the dog. I fully expect Peyton to win this game, but I dont expect to see him in the 4th quarter. The Broncos will win this game, but the Chiefs will be competitive against a rival and guys playing for jobs. I’ll take the points with the Chiefs, Broncos win in the under

Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers (No Line) - Terrell Pryor debuts for the Raiders at quarterback this weekend and goes against a division rival in the Chargers who are 20-5 straight up in December in the Norv Turner era. Im confident taking the Chargers in this one

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers (-16.5) (O/U 39) Again, way too many points in this one. The 49′ers will be hungry to turn their fate around and clinch up the division, but too much disrespect for a rival. The Cardinals are a mess, but sometimes the 49′ers have a tendency to play down to an opponent. With that said, I like the Cardinals to cover, 49 to still win by double digits, in the under

St Louis Rams vs Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) (O/U 41) - Seattle is coming off their biggest win of the season as they dismantled the 49ers in prime time, and are home to a young Rams team who has played the 49′ers tough twice. I think Jeff Fisher will have his team hungry to play spoiler, while the Seahawks will be looking at the 49ers/Cardinals game close and lose focus. The Seahawks will win this game, but it wont be double digits. I’ll take the Rams to cover in the under

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins (-3.5) (O/U 49) I am taking everything I know about football and throwing it out the window in a one and done situation. RG3 had his coming out party against the Boys on Thanksgiving, in which Romo played well to keep that game close. I think a second look at Rg3 will be crucial in this one, and the Cowboys will have DeMarco Murray in this one, which will give Romo more balance. I went against the Cowboys last weekend, but I think that they can be this years version of the New York Giants if they can get in….. I LOVE the Cowboys in this game. Im taking the Boys to win outright in the over. Bold prediction!

Good luck betters!

Teams with very little to play for: Colts, Ravens, Bengals, and Falcons.

Start ‘em:

Eli has not been one to be trusted this year, but should be dynamite in a must win game against the Eagles.

(NYG) Eli Manning vs. (PHI) – With the playoffs on the line and a terrible Eagles secondary the first thing between them, I expect big things from Eli Manning and the boys this weekend. Eli should be a lock for 20+ fantasy points, possibly one of his best games of the season.

(SEA) Russell Wilson vs. (STL) – If Wilson can score the amount of fantasy points he did against the ‘49ers, then I would think he will be able to do something similar against the Rams. Russell could strengthen the argument that he deserves offensive rookie of the ear.

Greene came through for me last week against the Chargers and should be very good for owners again against the Bills.

(NYJ) Shonn Greene vs. (BUF) – Greene was very good last week for fantasy owners as he scored a pair of touchdowns against the Chargers despite only running for less than 40 yards. This weekend I think he has another good game against the Bills.

(CAR) DeAngelo Williams vs. (NO) – Can’t say I thought Williams would be as good as he has been the last couple of weekends, but I also can’t deny it. If I needed a running back in week seventeen I might take a look at Williams if he is available, New Orleans has been better against the run lately but are still a pretty bad defense.

(DAL) Miles Austin vs. (WAS) – Dez Bryant is an absolute monster, and with that comes tons of attention from defenses. Tight end Witten is also a target monster, but Miles Austin has a good chance of grabbing a touchdown this weekend as the Cowboys visit the Redskins in what is one of the most important match ups of the week seventeen.

Bess runs good routes, has great hands and could see a high number of targets against the Patriots.

(MIA) Davone Bess vs. (NE) – The Dolphins get the Patriots for the second time in five weeks, and after a hard fought 23-14 loss last time, could be ready for another good game. I don’t expect Tannehill to have a massive day as quarterback, but I do think he will be looking for Bess quite a bit, and Bess has some of the best hands in the league.

(MIN) Kyle Rudolph vs. (GB) – The Vikings are fighting for a playoff spot, and Rudolph is the best receiving option that Ponder has. He isn’t hauling in a ton of yards but you have to roll with him and hope for a touchdown.

Sit ‘em:

(BAL) Joe Flacco vs. (CIN) – Flacco was in fine form last week at home in a win against the Giants, but obviously, I wouldn’t expect anything close to the same in week seventeen against the Bengals on the road. Neither team has a lot to play for either way as the Ravens will own the better division record even if the Bengals even the seasons records at 10-6.

Stafford needs more help than just Calvin to be an elite level quarterback for fantasy owners.

(DET) Matthew Stafford vs. (CHI) – Besides Calvin Johnson, Stafford really has no other receivers helping him out, if you are in the playoffs and have Matt Stafford starting against the Bears, I might consider another option; Calvin alone can not get Stafford all of the stats he needs to be an elite quarterback in fantasy.

I wouldn’t trust Jackson this weekend against the vaunted Seattle defense.

(STL) Steven Jackson vs. (SEA) – Seattle has been one scary defensive unit recently, and offence even, making things even harder for opposing running backs. I expect the Rams to be playing from behind and don’t see Jackson getting more than 15 carries or 70 or so yards on the ground.

(IND) Vick Ballard vs. (HOU) – Ballard was a disappointment for me last week as a member of the start ‘em side of the list against a bad Chiefs team; I don’t think I would be putting him in my lineup against Houston if I needed a good starter in the final week.

There is a good chance Green won’t play the full game in week seventeen, and should be replaced in your fantasy lineup.

(CIN) A.J. Green vs. (BAL) – As mentioned before the Bengals don’t have a lot to play for with the Ravens having the division locked up, and so I A.J. Green could be a huge risk to start if the Bengals decide to stop playing early in the game.

(PIT) Mike Wallace vs. (CLE) – Wallace might not play in week seventeen due to an injury, and if he does could see a good dose of Joe Haden, one of the top defensive backs in the league.

(SF) Vernon Davis vs. (ARZ) – With nine catches for 56 yards in his last four games combined, I don’t think I really need to go into detail about why you should sit Vernon Davis this weekend.

By all means, I am not perfect, but Im a weekly break-even or better picker. If you are making solo bets, you will always come out ahead by reading this article! Much like yourself, I’m just a sports fan who follows trends and stays on top of everything in the league. I try to block out a lot of the voices from other experts and try to give out the facts and piece the weeks together.

Last week was another winning week going 10-6 heads up, and 8-8 against the spread and the over/under.

This week, I really did my homework and will explain the FACTS of the matchups, from my research from www.pregame.com, which feature the best pickers in Vegas.

Without further adieu, here we go – Best of luck!

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)  vs Detroit Lions (O/U 51)  Atlanta coach Mike Smith is 33-17 all time ATS as a favorite in his career. Look for Mike Nolans defense to bottle up Calvin Johnson and make Matthew Stafford go somewhere else with the ball to beat them. I know Calvin will get his catches and will probably score – but it will take more than him to beat Atlanta. I’m laying the points with the Falcons in the over.

Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers (-12.5)(O/U 44.5) The Packers are still in the hunt from the #2 seed in the NFC which will have them motivated against a bad Titans team. The Packers have won 31 of their last 37 games, and are 30-14 all time in Lambeau in December against the spread. Im laying the points with the Packers in the over.

Oakland Raiders vs Carolina Panthers (-8.5) (O/U 46) – The spread is massive for a Panthers squad with a mediocre record. However, they are playing a bad team travelling West-to-East for an early slot who will have 10am bodies to play a motivated Cam Newton. In his last 7 games, Cam Newton has 13 TD’s vs 2 Int’s and has rebounded his season. The Raiders are bad, and as history has it – they have lost 6 of 7 against the spread the week after playing the Chiefs. Big line, but Im laying the points with the Panthers in the over.

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins (-4.5) (O/U 41.5)  The Dolphins are coming off a nice cover last week, while the Bills were embarrassed in Toronto against the Seahawks. The visitor in games against Miami are 65% covers, which favors the Bills. Miami has only scored 8 TDs in their last 6 games, and have some banged up receivers. Although Ryan Fitzpatrick’s quarterback rating in December is 67, I think going to the warm weather Miami is where he has his one good game of the month, and they go into Miami and upset the Dolphins in the under.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) (O/U 42) – Pretty much the Superbowl for both teams. The Steelers are actually the underdog to make the playoffs, and need the win. Andy Dalton has never beaten the Steelers in 3 attempts and averages 167 yards a game against them. The Bengals are running the ball well and controlling both lines of scrimmage. This is going to be a low scoring game but I think the Steelers will win it, but it will be tough. This will be Daltons best game against the Steelers, with Ike Taylor out – AJ Green will find the end zone. Im taking the Bengals and the points, but the Steelers will win in the under.

RG3 returns against the Eagles as the Redskins look to march into playoff contention

New England Patriots (-14.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 50.5) The home dog by more than 8 points are 20-2 all time against the spread. With that being said, the Patriots have only covered 5 of the last 21 when favored by double digits. The Patriots are going to win this game, and they will get back on track after a slip up against the 49ers last week. I just think there are too many points in this one, and Chad Henne can move the ball and has beaten the Patriots before with the Dolphins. Pats Win, Jags cover, Over 50 points.

Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 41) Andrew Luck is my rookie of the year, but he has the #31 quarterback rating in the league, and it’s even worse on the road. The Chiefs have mentally checked out and are playing for the #1 pick. It took them 40 minutes against a bad Raiders team to get their first 1st down! The Colts might possibly have the worst roster in the league, but as long as they have Luck and his receivers, they will win. Im nervous about the points, so I will will take the points with the Chiefs, but Indy wins it outright and it will be a low scoring game.

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys (-2) (O/U 52) Lots of fun numbers in this game that don’t bode well for the Boys. Dallas has only covered 3 of 16 games at home and the underdog has covered 74% of games against Dallas. Even worse, since 2005, Dallas has only covered 32% of games in December. Enter a New Orleans squad who beat up a resurgent Tampa Bay team and pitched a shut out. They come into Cowboys stadium and beat the Boys to set up an epic showdown next week between RG3 and Romo. Saints in the upset in the over

Washington Redskins (-6.5)  vs Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 45) Speaking of RG3, he makes his return this week in their biggest game of the season against the Eagles who will get their star running back LeSean McCoy back. The Eagles haven’t been inspired as of late, and the Skins are making a run for the playoffs. This is the biggest favorite the Skins have been in the Shanahan regime. The Eagles have been historically bad as a home underdog and this year have only covered 4 games ATS. I like the Eagles to cover this game, but the Skins to win it outright and the number to be over.

St Louis Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccanears (-3) (O/U 43.5) Coach Jeff Fisher is 61% all time as an underdog ATS but has a tough matchup against a Bucs squad who should be motivated after getting shut out against the Rams. Josh Freeman and company are up against an improving defense, but they let AD run wild on them last week. A few holes to sure up, but I like this as an under rated game of the day. I think the Bucs will be too explosive for them and win this one late. Laying the points with the Bucs and take the over.

New York Giants (-2.5)  vs Baltimore Ravens (O/U 47) The Ravens have won 20 of their last 23 home games and have won 15 of 17 after a loss. A team who was shut out the week prior, have covered the spread 66% of the time the next week. The Giants are playing for their season while the Ravens have clinched a spot and won’t finish any higher than #3. Eli Manning is a much better away from the swirling winds in the Meadowlands. Im going to lay the points with the G-Men and take the over

Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans (-7.5) (O/U 44.5) Probably the worst game of the day. Adrian Peterson won’t touch 100 yards against the Texans, and the Texans win this one in a blowout. I’m keeping this one simple. Laying the points with the Texans in the under

Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos (-13) (O/U 44.5) Vegas has the Broncos as the best team in the NFL right now and on a neutral field, would have them favored against anyone right now. However, in their last 51 home games, they have only covered 16 of them. Cleveland isn’t in Denver’s class, but they play a similar style of football. Denver will look to run the ball, and the Browns are stout up the middle. They also have corners who can match up with Demaryius Thomas. Peyton will get the job done, but I like the Browns to cover this one in the under. Denver wins by 10.

Chicago Bears (-5.5) vs Arizona Cardinals (O/U 36.5) Both teams are headed in the wrong direction, but I think the Bears are the better team on both sides of the ball and will travel to the desert and win this one. Cardinals won’t do anything against the Bears pass defense. Bears win and cover in an ugly game – under the line

San Diego Chargers vs New York Jets (-2.5) (O/U 37.5) Here is what you need to know about this game. Coach Norv Turner is 19-5 straight up in December and 16-8 against the spread in that time frame as well. The Jets are 50-83 against the spread all time as a home favorite. With the Jets being a mess and Greg McIlroy getting the start, I will take the veteran Phillip Rivers to get it done outright in the under.

San Fransisco 49ers (-1)  vs Seattle Seahawks (O/U 39.5) – We all know Seattle is a much better home team (63% ATS) and they are 18-5 as an underdog at home under Pete Carroll, and even better as an underdog covering the last 10 of 11. The 49′ers enter play with the best net yards per play in the NFL and will be a great matchup as the 49′ers look to hold onto the #2 seed. The 49′ers travel well and in their first matchup (13-6 win for SF) it was Wilson’s worst game as a pro. I really like the 49′ers to win this game in the over. I think the 49′ers will make a statement in this one, and they aren’t the Bills and Cardinals who the Seahawks put up over 100 on. Plus, you get the epic coaching matchup between Harbaugh and Carroll – two men who hate each other! Im jacked up about this one!

Week Sixteen! Superbowl week for most, semi-finals for some. Best of luck everyone!

I only hope these suggestions help you; trust your gut!

Find me on Twitter: @Blackie_Mike

Start ‘em:

(STL) Sam Bradford vs. (TB) – For someone who had such potential when he came into the league as a rookie, Sam Bradford as been a very quiet name in the fantasy landscape this past season only throwing for three touchdowns twice all season, including last week. There are two main reasons why Bradford could be a good start once again this weekend. Sam tends to play much better when he has Danny Amendola available, and will get to play the struggling Buccaneers who just got dominated by the Saints. Unfortunately though the Rams will be on the road.

Flacco is at home for week sixteen, where he routinely plays better and gets the struggling Giants.

(BAL) Joe Flacco vs. (NYG) – Joe Flacco tends to play much better at home and the Giants were so bad last week against the Falcons that I think I just might be able to bring myself to start Flacco should I need to. The Giants may come back this weekend pissed off and ready to roll the also struggling Ravens, but I think Flacco has a decent game as he spreads the ball around at home to Torrey, Boldin and Pitta.

With Daniel Thomas out, Reggie Bush should see a heathy workload against a bad Bills defense.

(MIA) Reggie Bush vs. (BUF) – Bush was a massive dud for me a couple weeks ago when he played the Bills, rushing the balls ten times for a measly 20 yards. This week, in a rematch against the Bills I am depending on Miami to give him closer to 15-20 carries which should be more than enough to have a much better game than last time. Daniel Thomas is also unlikely to play which is a huge boost to Bush.

(DEN) Knowshon Moreno vs. (CLE) – With over 400 yards and three touchdowns on the ground alone since taking over the starting role a few weeks ago, Moreno has basically cemented himself as one of the league top rushers; largely helped by the potency of Peyton Manning and the passing game. Moreno will have 100 total yards at least against the Browns.

(NYJ) Shonn Greene vs. (SD) – I have always hated Greene in fantasy football for whatever reason, and perhaps it is time I got over my bias. Greene now has over 950 yards for the season to go along with six touchdowns (granted, three of them came in one game), even while splitting carries with Bilal Powell. This weekend the Jets will play the Chargers, the same Chargers who let Mike Tolbert rush for a pair of touchdowns against them last weekend while letting DeAngelo Williams run for 93 yards. Shonn and Bilal should see quite a few opportunities to score some fantasy points in week sixteen. Bilal may be the better choice if he gets a few goal line carries.

Ballard will get the starting role against the Chiefs defense as Donald Brown is on the IR.

(IND) Vick Ballard vs. (KC) – With Donald Brown on the IR, Vick Ballard should see a healthy workload of carries in week sixteen against the Chiefs. Ballard is not as good as Charles who only ran for 10 yards against them last weekend, but the Colts are a smarter team with a better offense and should be able to find better opportunities for Ballard.

(GB) James Jones vs. (TEN) – Jones now leads the league in touchdowns catches; start the guy leading the league in touchdowns catches.

Amendola should be a lock for a touchdown this weekend against the Buccaneers.

(STL) Danny Amendola vs. (TB) – In his first game back from injury, once again, Amendola caught his third touchdown pass of the season on 12 targets. Amendola has seen games with targets of 9, 16, 9, 19, 5, 12, 11, and 12 this season, excellent numbers; start Danny with confidence anytime he is good to go.

(CIN) Jermaine Gresham vs. (PIT) – The Pittsburgh secondary has struggled the last few weeks, allowing Philip Rivers to have one of his better games of the season while and losing to Tony Romo and the Cowboys. A.J. Green is a must start this weekend as usual but can’t do it all alone. Sanu is still out and Hawkins is extremely hard to predict, so I would be very confident in starting Gresham as my tight end or in a flex spot.

Sit ‘em:

As good as Wilson has been I am not trusting him against the ’49ers defense.

(SEA) Russell Wilson vs. (SF) – In what is the Superbowl week for the majority of fantasy weekends, I would not be looking to start either Wilson or Kaepernick in their Monday night matchup against each other. The Seahawks and ‘49ers host two of the best defenses in the entire league and have been flexing their defensive muscle in recent weeks. Despite how good Wilson has been in particular, I might try finding someone else to start in the biggest week of the season.

(SF) Colin Kaepernick vs. (SEA) – See Above  ‘Russell Wilson’

(CIN) BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs. (PIT) – It has been a much better season for the Law Firm than I would have predicted, already sitting on more than 1000 yards with six touchdowns, including four 100-yard games in his last five starts. The run of success for BJGE should take a week off this weekend though when he is on the road against the Steelers, as both teams compete for the playoffs.

Wells will not be handed touchdowns against the Bears the way he was against the Lions.

(ARZ) Beanie Wells vs. (CHI) – Beanie was great last week for anyone who started him as he ran for three touchdowns before the game was through and could be a hot topic for this coming weekend. I myself however am not too interested in starting Beanie for another week, especially against the Bears. Also, Beanie was handed two of his touchdowns by the Lions themselves on turnovers in their own redzone.

(JAX) Montell Owens vs. (NE) – Montell Owens is the lone back for Jacksonville so he is almost guaranteed a decent workload, but since the Jaguars struggle so much to not fall behind, that workload is never quite as big as it could be.

Lloyd will have a tough time keeping his hot streak going as Gronkowski is likely to return.

(NE) Brandon Lloyd vs. (JAX) – ten catches for 190 yards last week, and 89 with a touchdown the week before, where has this been all season? None-the-less, I am not starting Lloyd in week sixteen if I have the choice. The Jaguars suck and could let Lloyd break a big one, but the Patriots running game and short pass game will be enough to control and win this game. Rob Gronkowski may play.

(SF) Michael Crabtree vs. (SEA) – Since I am expecting it to be a tough, low scoring game between the ‘49ers and Seahawks on Monday night, I am not expecting much from the teams wide outs. I am more comfortable in starting Michael Crabtree if I had to, as he is the more consistent receiver. The potential of Seattle CB Richard Sherman to miss this game could be very good for Crabtree however, so if it is ruled that Sherman can’t play, starting Michael is much safer.

(SEA) Sidney Rice vs. (SF) – See Above  ‘Michael Crabtree’

(IND) Dwayne Allen vs. (KC) – Had a touchdown last week but only saw three targets each of the last two weeks. Against the bad Chiefs team that doesn’t allow much to opposing tight ends, am look elsewhere for a TE this weekend.

Green Bay Packers (-3) vs Chicago Bears (O/U 43) – Both teams fighting for the top of the NFC North #1 with Green Bay holding the lead and already holding the tie breaker over the Bears. The Bears were embarrassed last time in Lambeau as Rodgers and company executed and shut down Brandon Marshall with a double team. Expect much of the same, even though Cutler will score some points at home but the Packers win comfortably. Give me the Packers and the points and to go over the 43 points

New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) (O/U 51) – This game has shoot out written all over it as you can tell by the line. Pretty much a pick em game with both offenses will be featured in good situations. Matt Ryan is close to unbeatable at home, and Eli Manning is a better thrower outside of NY State. A Statement game for both teams, but I like the road team in this one in a wild west shoot out. Give me the Giants to win outright and both teams to go over the 51.

Tampa Bay Buccanears vs New Orleans Saints (-4) (O/U 54) – I think the Saints rebound against a young Bucs squad that couldn’t close against the Eagles last week. The Bucs have a game that can travel, but Drew Brees has been mad all week with his last two outings, and they will look to make an example of the Bucs at home. Lots of points to be had in this one, but I think it stays under the 54. I’ll take the Saints and the points in the under

Minnesota Vikings vs St Louis Rams (-2.5) (O/U 38.5) I keep betting against Minnesota and they keep winning. I have no idea how this offense scores points week to week when all you have to do is shut down Adrian Peterson. Even with 8 guys in the box, he’s still pushing for 2000 yards on the season and is just an incredible athlete. I think the Rams at home will be a tough matchup for Ponder and the Vikings. It will be a low scoring, chippy affair but I really like the young Rams in this game. Give me the Rams to cover in the under.

Washington Redskins vs Cleveland Browns – No line on this one yet as RG3′s status is unclear, although I think he will be ready to go. A lot of talk is on the Redskins, who keep impressing the public and finding ways to win. This offense is impossible to stop in 3rd and short situations and Alfred Morris, and Pierre Garcon have been the key cogs to the pistol offense. However, Cleveland is one tough place to play – ask the Steelers, and Cowboys – I think the Browns will grind one out with Trent Richardson and that defense holds strong at home. Give me the Browns in the upset of the week.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins (-7) (O/U 37.5) I have never seen one time, the Dolphins, go from 10 point underdogs last week to 7 point favorite this week. I like the Dolphins in this game at home, but I think it will be closer than most people give it credit for. Jacksonville should be able to throw on the Dolphins, which will keep the game close. Look for Miami to control the clock and grind out a victory. Give me the Jags to cover, Dolphins to win, AND the over in the 37.5

Denver Broncos (-3) vs the Baltimore Ravens (O/U 48). Here is an interesting game with a lot of different storylines summed up. Peyton hasn’t had a lot of luck against Baltimore. Ray Rice will get a lot of work in this one with OC Cam Cameron getting fired a week ago. Baltimore will keep it simple and efficient, but I don’t think they will be able to stop the Broncos who are just clicking right now and coming off 10 days rest.  Give me the Broncos to win with the points and the number to be under 48

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans (-8.5) (O/U 48). One game I’ll be watching this weekend is the Colts/Texans matchup due to it’s AFC South playoff implication. If Houston wins, they lock up the division. The Colts control their own destiny if they can win outright. Tough match up for the Colts as Luck goes on the road to face a divisional rival. KEEP IN MIND that Wade Phillips knows he will be facing Andrew Luck for the next 12-15 years, so he will look to confuse the hell out of Luck this weekend. I think the Texans come out and make a statement against Indy after not showing up against the Patriots in a meaningful prime time showcase. Give me the Texans and the points in the over.

Carolina Panthers vs San Diego Chargers (-3) (O/U 45) Good matchup here as both teams are coming up big wins. I keep saying that the Panthers are playing better than their record indicates on offense and the Chargers find a way to lose a game. Chargers were impressive against the Steelers last week, and are usually rolling leading into Christmas. However, I like the Panthers in this one to find a way to get it done. Give me Newton and the Panthers in the over.

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)  vs Buffalo Bills (In Toronto)  The Sehawks and Bills play north of the border in Toronto this weekend in a home game for the Bills. Seattle absolutely destroyed the Cardinals last week and look to continue their improvement on the road against the Bills. The Seahawks are way to good and playing much better football right now and it’s a nightmare matchup for the Bills. Give me the Seahawks to win, but the Bills to cover it in a low scoring affair (under 43)

Detroit Lions(-6.5) vs Arizona Cardinals – Is there anyone you feel more sorry for than Larry Fitzgerarld? Poor guy can’t get anything accomplished with this mess at Quarterback. Now they are playing a juggernaut offense in the Lions who will be looking to get Megatron the ball frequently. Look for the Lions to blow up the Cardinals already bad O-line and destroy John Skelton. The Lions win big

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) vs Dallas Cowboys (O/U 44) Both teams know that this is their season, especially with the Bengals winning last night. Romo will have a banged up Dez Bryant to work with, so expect much of the emphasis to be on Miles Austin and Jason Witten. The Steelers will come out and try to grind one out and pick apart the middle of the Cowboys defense that’s depleted with injury. I like the Steelers to win this game on the road and continue to battle for that wildcard spot. Give me the Steelers with the points in the over.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders (-3) - Divisional game and East travelling West determines this matchup. I like the Raiders to rebound with a healthy-ish Darren McFadden and take the ball out of Carson Palmers hand a little bit. Palmer won’t throw 40 times, which will allow some balance and for the Raiders to get it done. I like the Raiders to win with the points and give me the under 44

San Francisco 49′ers vs New England Patriots (-5.5) (O/U 46.5) Possible Superbowl preview in Primetime. It’s a bigger game for the 49′ers as they have another emotional game next week. Classic case of Tough vs Finesse in this match up. The Patriots never lose in Foxborough in the second half of the season and I don’t expect anything different. Bill Belichick is money against rookie quarterbacks and will make Kaepernick throw into an improving secondary with no outstanding weapons. I like the Patriots with another statement win in this one at home. Pats and the points in the under.

Monday Night Parlay – New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans (-1.5) Believe it ot not, the Jets are still in the wildcard hunt only a game back of the Steelers. Tennessee couldn’t stop Indy last week, and this is their only prime time game with all the lights on them. Jake Locker is playing better, but will have a tough matchup against the Jets who is playing good def

Have questions? Find me on Twitter: @Blackie_Mike

Start ‘em:

(CAR) Cam Newton vs. (SD) – Newton has been amazing for fantasy owners lately including scoring three touchdowns in week fourteen in a win over the Falcons, and should be able do something similar this coming weekend against the Chargers. The Chargers just allowed Big Ben, returning from substantial injuries to throw for almost 300 yards and three touchdowns; I am expecting Newton to account for another three touchdowns in week fifteen.

Freeman put up 420 yards and three touchdowns when he faced the Saints earlier this season

(TB) Josh Freeman vs. (NO) – With less than 200 yards and two touchdowns last week against the struggling Eagles secondary, Freeman was quite the disappointment for those who started him, but should be much better against the Saints. The Saints were just ripped by Eli Manning and the Giants for four touchdowns and Freeman did put up 420 yards and three touchdowns against them earlier this season.

(KC) Jamaal Charles vs. (OAK) – Charles would have left week fourteen after the first couple plays and still satisfied fantasy owners as he took the a handoff on the opening possession 80 yards for a touchdown. Before the game was over he had doubled his yardage to finish with 165 total yards. He only has four touchdowns on the season but is amassing tons of yards; against the Raiders, one of the worst teams in the NFL at the moment Charles might be able to replicate the performance.

(BUF) C.J. Spiller vs. (SEA) – Fred Jackson has been confirmed as out for the season so it will be Spiller getting a full workload the rest of the season, and with such a dynamic skill set is a must start the rest of way despite his matchup. Spiller is easily the best offensive weapon the Bills have and they would be wise to use him as much as possible.

Brown may have left a sour taste in fantasy owners mouths, but should still be started the rest of the way

(PHI) Bryce Brown vs. (CIN) – Brown was a massive bust for fantasy owners last week after being a fantasy gold mine the two weeks prior; don’t give up on him yet though. Brown has very nice matchups against the Bengals, Redskins and Giants over the final three weeks and with LeSean McCoy unlikely to play again this season should see healthy workloads in each game.

(SD) Danario Alexander vs. (CAR) – After watching Danario score a pair of beauty touchdowns this past weekend against the Steelers, I won’t even be thinking of taking him out of my lineup the rest of the way. I had the pleasure of picking him up in several leagues and reaped the rewards once again in week fourteen and am expecting more in week fifteen against the Panthers.

Gordon is coming off a season high 12 targets and has a great matchup against the Redskins

(CLE) Josh Gordon vs. (WAS) – Despite only 86 yards last week Gordon saw a season high 12 targets, which bodes very well for anyone who want s to employ him in the next week or so. Against the Redskins Gordon has the potential for another 100-yard game with a score like he had just two weeks ago.

(TB) Mike Williams vs. (NO) – Vincent Jackson is a must start nearly every week and should be able to tear it up against the Saints, but don’t forget about Mike Williams whom has touchdowns in back-to-back weeks and seven on the season. I am not expecting a homerun effort from Williams but I do think he can reel in 5 catches for 60 yards and a score.

(BAL) Dennis Pitta vs. (DEN) – Pitta is never a slam dunk as he is yet to have a back-to-back touchdown games this season and has a yardage high of 73, but he still has a very nice matchup against the Broncos this coming Sunday and could help out the many fantasy owners out there struggling to find a good tight end each week.

Sit ‘em:

(DAL) Tony Romo vs. (PIT) – Last week I suggested sitting Rivers against the Steelers, a decision that proved to be wrong as he threw three touchdowns, but I am still very hesitant about Tony Romo in week fifteen. Not only are the Steelers a very tough defense, but also Dez Bryant might not be able to play due to a finger injury. Early reports stated Dez was possibly done for the season while newer ones state that Dez thinks he will play (athletes always say that). Even if Bryant does play how effective will he be with a seriously injured hand? This is shaping up to be a very tough game for Romo.

RGIII was helped off the field last weekend and might not be able to help your fantasy team in week fifteen.

(WAS) Robert Griffin III vs. (CLE) – At the moment it is not even sure if RGIII will be able to play come Sunday against the browns after suffering a knee sprain in an exciting week fourteen win over the Ravens. While he will likely be the talk of the football world, it should be an open and shut close in the fantasy world; sit him. Much of Griffin’s effectiveness comes from his mobility and ability to run, a sprained knee might affect him there. Also, the Browns are terrible against the run so the Redskins should be able to find success running the ball. Finally, I would not be surprised if he was straight up unable to play or sat by the coach.

Gore has another 1000-yard season under his belt but will be hard pressed to add many more yards against the Patriots.

(SF) Frank Gore vs. (NE) – Back to back touchdown games and another 1000-yards season under the belt for one of my favorite running back Gore; congratulations! Now that is out of the way, time to get on the bench… The Patriots have been one of the best teams in fantasy against running backs, a mix of their improved defense and stellar offense that keeps other teams throwing to keep up.  Despite Gore’s impressive play in 2012 I am not expecting much from him on Sunday.

(DET) Mikel Leshoure vs. (ARZ) – While he does have close to 700 yards rushing to go along with his seven touchdowns over his eleven games this season, I have some worries about Leshoure this coming weekend. First off, his 3.7 yards per carry is rather weak, while three of his seven touchdowns came in one game. This coming weekend he plays a terrible team with a decent defense in the Cardinals, and while not a terrible matchup obviously, I just think Leshoure has been a little underwhelming on the field and might struggle to gain yards (again, 3.7 ypc).

(CAR) DeAngelo Williams vs. (SD) – With over 100 total yards and a touchdown last week in the Panthers win over the Falcons, Williams was a nice play for small amount of owners who started him and might be a popular waiver add through the week. While he might be worth the waiver pick up I am not looking to add him to my starting line up. The Chargers do have a banged up defense at the moment but are still better against the run than the pass; I see Cam Newton doing most of the damage in this one while Williams is left with a stat line closer to 12 carries for 50-60 yards.

(TEN) Kenny Britt vs. (NYJ) – Even without Darrelle Revis the New York Jets are winning games lately and it can still be credited to the play of the defense. Cromartie has proved himself to be a shutdown corner at times, using his big body to disrupt the opposing teams top wide out. For the Titans that wide out is Kenny Britt, who is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season. I expect Britt to end up below 100 again without a touchdown in against the Jets.

I would seriously consider sitting Johnson against a stellar Seahawks secondary

(BUF) Stevie Johnson vs. (SEA) – The Seahawks have one of the best secondary units in the league and Johnson can’t seem to grab a touchdown while getting good yardage at the same time. Since the first three weeks of the season when Johnson scored 11, 11, and 12 points respectively, he has only broken double-digits twice. I would not be looking for Johnson even meet those numbers against the Seahawks.

(IND) T.Y. Hilton vs. (HOU) – The Houston have struggled against the pass a bit lately, and have been decimated twice by elite quarterbacks (Rodgers, Brady), but Luck is not an elite quarterback yet; case in point, last week. Luck was only able to throw one touchdown with two interceptions against the Titans last week and won’t be given an inch against a divisional opponent that is coming off an embarrassing loss and trying to secure the #1 seed in the conference.

(PIT) Antonio Brown vs. (DAL) – Brown had one of the rare touchdowns of his career last week against the Chargers, catching a 1-yard pass from Roethlisberger in the fourth quarter. Despite the touchdown, Brown still did not surpass ten fantasy points, something he has only done ONCE this season. Do not start Brown this week unless you are happy with what he has been giving you until this point.

(DET) Brandon Pettigrew vs. (ARZ) – I had trouble finding a tight end that struck me as someone people might want to avoid, so instead I will just remind people that Lions TE Brandon Pettigrew injured his ankle last weekend and is unlikely to play against the Cardinals. Make sure you find a replacement if you have been starting Pettigrew.

(IND) Andrew Luck vs. (TEN): 16/34 196 yards TD, 2INT – A very disappointing finish for Luck as he only threw for one touchdown and with less than 200 yards against the Titans defense.  In such a juicy matchup and in most peoples first week of the fantasy playoffs Andrew Luck was of little help (he did better than A-Rod at least). Next week’s matchups confuses me as the Texans will host the game and will want to put the Colts in their place, but have been getting eviscerated by good quarterbacks lately.

(NYG) Ahmad Bradshaw vs. (NO): 11 rushes 33 yards – My nominee for dud of the week; Bradshaw took his 11 carries for 33 yards, getting banged up even more at some point along the way. With Bradshaw laying so poorly, rookie running back David Wilson was handed the ball 13 times and took it for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns, to go with a 97-yard punt return touchdown. As Bradshaw is the dud of the week, Wilson looks poised to be the waiver wire pickup of the week.

Moreno was great with his 32 carries against the Raiders and could be vital to a fantasy playoff run.

(DEN) Knowshon Moreno vs. (OAK): 32 rushes 119 yards TD, 4 catches 48 yards – Moreno came through for anyone who started him by getting a career high 32, that’s right, 32 carries to go with 4 catches. The end result was 167 total yards and a touchdown. Moreno has more tempting matchups coming up against the Ravens, Browns and Chiefs so he could be a key part of many fantasy playoff runs.

Maclin was targeted 13 times by Foles and could maintain his value in the next few weeks.

(PHI) Jeremy Maclin vs. (TB): 9 catches 104 yards TD – Maclin and the Eagles had a big game besting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a game winning touchdown drive, a touchdown that Maclin caught to turn his quite good 103-yard game into a very good 140 yards with a touchdown game. I would keep on starting Maclin going forward as Foles tries to prove himself and the Eagles attempt to save face.

(DEN) Eric Decker vs. (OAK): 8 catches 88 yards – Not a terrible game from Decker but still not everything I was hoping for as he failed to crack double digit fantasy points, unless it was a PPR league where he would have been a very good start. Lots of targets and good yardage but Decker has now gone three games without a score.

(BAL) Torrey Smith vs. (WAS): 1 catch 21 yards – I just can’t figure this guy out. In what was a very nice matchup, and with Flacco throwing for 3 TDs, Torrey leaves the game with 1 catch for 21 yards on only three targets.

(STL) Chris Givens vs. (BUF): 3 catches 25 yards – Givens had a rather dud game, catching only 3 passes for 25 yards despite seeing a team high 10 targets in the game; he just couldn’t seem to keep his hands on the ball (he did catch a 2-point conversion attempt in the 4^th quarter). Instead, it was Brandon Gibson who saw nine targets and caught six of them for 100 yards and a touchdown, including the game winner. Both are no more than flex options, and I still like Givens as the guy to start going forward; neither is worth a start if Amendola returns.

After almost an entire season of doing nothing Britt looked ready to help owners win their playoffs.

(TEN) Kenny Britt vs. (IND): 8 catches 143 yards – Britt had some monster yardage in the loss to the Colts, catching 8 passes for just shy of 150 yards; Britt was a touchdown away from being one of the best WRs of the week. With a new offensive coordinator and Jake Locker at quarterback, the Titans throw the ball much more than the first half of the season; I am hoping for some more big games from Britt in the final weeks.

(OAK) Brandon Myers vs. (DEN): 1 catch 7 yards – Only one-catch on two targets for Myers as it was Darren McFadden who saw the bulk of the Raiders workload, including a number of short passes that may have gone to Myers in previous weeks. Even still, with the Raiders down the entire game I would have thought that Myers would get more than two targets, I am now worried about him for next week and if McFadden being back will continue to limit Myers looks.

Sit ‘em:

Rivers was surprisingly effective against the Steelers and looks more comfortable with Danario Alexander playing so well.

(SD) Philip Rivers vs. (PIT): 21/41 200 yards 3TD – A rather effective game from Rivers against one of the leagues best defenses, completing a pair of touchdown throws to Danario Alexander and one to Malcom Floyd. I think the main thing to realize is that Danario is for real and is looking a lot like the big-bodied Vincent Jackson type receiver that Rivers was missing all year. I still worry about starting Rivers every week as he had as many TDs this weekend (3) as he had in the three weekends before.

(MIA) Reggie Bush vs. (SF): 14 rushes 65 yards 5 caches 38 yards – Actually a pretty good day from Reggie considering the matchup, but am I really surprised? If you look at Reggie’s game log you might notice that he plays well against tough teams while often dropping duds against weak defenses he should be able to expose. With that said, Bush has some very nice matchups coming up against the Jaguars and Bills.

(NE) Stevan Ridley vs. (HOU): – 18 carries 72 yards TD – I expected the Patriots to win the Monday night matchup but didn’t think it would be so easy. As a result of the PAtriots having a hefty lead the entire game, Ridley was safe to get 18 carries, one of which he took for a 14-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Ridley does have another tough matchup next week against the ’49ers.

After a game like that make sure to start Wallace the rest of the way with Big Ben at quarterback.

(PIT) Mike Wallace vs. (SD): 7 catches 112 yards 2TD  – Even though Big Ben is still a rather broken man, the Steelers made him attempt 42 passes in the loss to the Chargers, 22 of which he completed including three touchdowns. If Ben is going hook up with Wallace 7 times in his first game back from injury, I think we can expect Wallace to catch a few more before the fantasy season is out.

(GB) James Jones vs. (DET): 2 catches 27 yards – Aaron Rodgers seems to be struggling the last few weeks, including throwing for less than 200 yards without a touchdown this past weekend, possibly ruining many a fantasy playoff effort. With Rodgers not playing so well, the consistent play of Randall Cobb and the cycle of other receivers the Packers deal with I doubt have much faith in Jones as a starter. He will likely be having more bust games the rest of the way.

If Dez misses a few games Miles should see a boost in value.

(DAL) Miles Austin vs. (CIN): 4 catches 46 yards – Austin didn’t see a lot of work as the Cowboys came from behind to beat the Bengals and save their season for the time being.  Despite Romo attempting 43 passes his leading receiver left the game with all of 62 yards while Dez Bryant had 50 with a touchdown. The big news now with the Cowboys now though is the possible loss of Dez Bryant for the season, so if the Cowboys want to maintain a vertical threat they will need more from Austin and Ogletree.

(SEA) Golden Tate vs. (ARZ): 2 catches 6 yards – Seattle had a massive lead early and just ran with it, literally. Running back Marshawn Lynch destroyed the Cardinals, needing only 11 carries to rush for 128 yards and a trip of touchdowns. After Lynch had his fill it was rookie Robert Turbin who saw 20 carries that he took for 108 yards. The Cardinals suck and Russell Wilson didn’t have to do much, meaning his receivers had even less value.

(SD) Antonio Gates vs. (PIT): 3 catches 31 yards – without a doubt, Gates is the bust of the year at tight end, leaving a game in which his quarterback through for three touchdowns with only 31 yards. Gates has only bested 50 yards twice this year and a mere 110 total yards in his last 4 starts without a touchdown. Feel free find anyone else to start and hope for the best.

Week 14 is no different – there are some desperate teams, great matchups, and lots of playoff implications on the line today. So what I will do is pick all the games straight up, and if I like the matchups against the spread and Over/Under – I will include that as well. Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have – that’s why it’s called gambling. Players bet picks straight up! Lets go! I didn’t think I needed to include the Denver/Oakland game for Thursday – Im sure we were all on the Denver bandwagon.

Atlanta Falcons  (-3.5) vs Carolina Panthers (O/U 48) - The Panthers have shown that they have been playing better than their record has shown, and then stunk it up against Kansas City last week. Atlanta was lucky in their first meeting, and are 10 days rested against an emotional game against New Orleans. Carolina plays them tough, but ultimately Atlanta will win the game and both will hit the over.

Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Redskins (-2.5) (O/U 47.5) Washington coming off a big win on Monday, with less time to prepare for a Baltimore team hungry after getting embarrassed at home to the Charlie Batch led Steelers. Forget what you know about the Ravens on the road – they will come out to play today. RG3 is going to get his points, but I get the better team and defense with the Ravens. Take the Ravens to win outright, and under the 47.5

Chicago Bears (-3) vs Minnesota Vikings (O/U 39) – Minnesota has a way of keeping games close and scoring points without any play makers besides Adrian Peterson. I know the Bears are unravelling at the seams, and lost Brian Urlacher for the rest of the year. I know the Bears lost the Seahawks last week, but if they want to keep their lead over the Packers, they need to win this game. I’ll take the better team in the Bears and the under the points.

Mark Sanchez is playing for his job against Jacksonville today

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) (O.U 38) Yes I know the Cowboys are a mess and have had tragedy strike them this week with the death of a team mate. Dallas is desperate, and will go on the road and win this one. The Bengals are a great defensive team, but Romo will be able to make some plays with his feet. Dallas to me is the better team, and are due for a signature win. Take Dallas and the Over

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns (-7) (O/U 38) – I don’t remember the Browns ever being favored by more than a field goal, and now I get them at home by 7? I know the Chiefs had that emotional win against Carolina, but the second week after tragedy is typically harder. The Browns are a great defense, especially at home and expect to see a lot of Trent Richardson in this one. Browns win and COVER the 7

New York Jets (-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 38) – This is a statement game for Mark Sanchez if he wants to have a football career going forward. After being benched last week, Sanchez gets another shot at this and there will be screams for Tim Tebow as he makes his return home. I can’t see how the Jets win this one, as the Jags actually have a QB who can throw the ball down field. I like the Jags in the upset

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Bucs (-7.5) (O/U 48) - Pretty tight line on this one. I fully expect the Bucs to win this one at home and are clearly the better team. The Eagles are playing for pride and the young guys have been stepping up, and rookie Bryce Brown could hang onto the ball, they would have beaten the Cowboys. I’ll take the Eagles to cover this one, but the Bucs win in a shootout.

San Diego Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) (O/U 40)  As I have said before, there are only about 5 quarterbacks who changes the betting line like Ben Roethlisberger does. Big Ben is back this week, and it will take a game to get back in order. I expect the Chargers to play hard and cover the 8 – but the Steelers will be too much for them. Give me the over 40

St Louis Rams vs Buffalo Bills (-3) (O/U 42.5) – The Rams won their superbowl last week beating the 49′ers for the (second) time this season, and the Bills are still trying to figure it all out. Stevie Johnson is a game time for the Bills, so expect a lot of Spiller/Jackson. I’ll take the Bills in this one, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams upset them. Give me the Bills in the over

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts (-6) (O/U 46/5) - This will be a lower scoring affair then the first one. I like the Colts to control this game at home and win it outright. The Titans will come to play in it, and cover the spread. Give me the under in this one as well.

Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers (-11) (O/U 39) - Colin Kaepernick gives you more of a dynamic than Alex Smith, but it looked like he regressed last week. I will still go with the better team in this one with the 49′ers, but don’t sleep on Ryan Tannehill, the kid can ball and will keep this game within 11. 49′ers win, Dolphins cover

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks (-10) (O/U 36)  – This game scares me as Im in playoffs up against Seattle defense this week. I don’t know how the Cardinals will move the ball with John Skelton. At least it gives Larry Fitzgerald a chance to catch the ball, but you know Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas will be ALL over him. Rough matchup for the Cardinals, but they will cover as I don’t think they will put them away. I’ll take the Seahawks to win, Cardinals to cover in an under game

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants (-5) (O/U 54) This game is another playoff implication game and it’s hard to go against the defending champs in this one. I know the Saints are rested, but the Giants need it to get that division title and put pressure on the Redskins and Cowboys. This will be the “epic” game of the day, but I like the Giants offense in this one. Give me the Giants in Under

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers (-7) (O/U 49)  - The Packers are finding ways to pull out games, like they did last week against the Vikings. Jordy Nelson is a gametime decision, and the Lions have only Megatron healthy to throw to at wide receiver. I really like the Packers at home in this one in the over and to win with the 7 points The defense gets a boost back with Clay Matthews and possibly one of their DB’s Sam Shields.

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots (-3.5) (O/U 52). What a great game to cap off Week 14 as the two best teams in the AFC go head to head. Injuries are playing a big part in this playoff preview with both teams suffering their share of casualties. I like the Patriots in this one as they don’t lose at home in the second half of the season. The Texans will run the ball in this one, and have been efficient move the chains with Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson. I trust Tom Brady to get the job done and spread the ball around. Give me the Pats to win it close, in the under.

Both teams have a lot on the line in this one. The Ravens have all but clinched the AFC North, and are trying to play for home field advantage because they are a much better home team. In fact, Joe Flacco’s quarterback rating is 30 points higher at home!

The Redskins are one game behind the Giants for the division lead, and come into this one leading the league in rushing with 167 yards per game on the ground. Much of this is led by fellow rookie Alfred Morris, who has come out of nowhere to be one of the top running backs in the game, and a dark horse in the rookie of the year discussion.

The Redskins have been a great story this year, much like the Colts, and are building a case for getting back to their glory days since they have a franchise quarterback in place. Much of their offense comes from the college pistol offence, which features speed in the back field and deception. If you watch tape, you see a lot of over aggressive pass rushers confused on who has the ball and where the ball is distributed.

Ray Rice needs to be the center of attention for the Ravens to come away with the victory

Griffin is a very efficient and accurate passer, but he’s not a gun slinger like most quarterbacks. Instead of throwing the ball away, he can scramble and pick up the first down or run it to a safe place. The problem is that he becomes susceptible in taking big hits. Being a slight quarterback, taking big hits over the course of his career is going to eventually slow him down and make him a pocket passer. The problem is, he’s an excellent pocket passer as well!

I’m not sold on the Redskins in the this one. The Ravens are a tad over rated, but they are still one of the best teams in football and have the better defense, and better weapons on offense. If Joe Flacco can bounce back, and feed Ray Rice (which all fantasy owners want to see) the Ravens will be able to handle Griffin and the skins.

The Ravens defense hasn’t been what we’ve all known it to be. You can run on them to the tune of 125 yards a game. Their red zone defense has been their saving grace, as they don’t give up a lot of points over the course of the game, averaging 20 points allowed a game. The defense travels well, and with Ed Reed patrolling center field, look for Griffin to keep it away from the ball hawk.

The Ravens will win this game moving the ball with Ray Rice and eliminating mistakes with Joe Flacco. The Ravens have the advantage at all skill positions and have two great wide receivers in Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. With injuries all over the Redskins defense, and Deangelo Hall a game time decision, Flacco will have a nice game.

This game is a pick em for me as I see it going a couple different ways. I’ll have a better opinion tomorrow in my Winners column, but I have the Ravens winning it due to their many options of offense, and the better defense.

Fantasy wise, this should be a fun game. I like Alfred Morris, RG3, Dennis Pitta, and Torrey Smith

The Titans travel to Indianapolis with revenge on their mind from an overtime thriller with the Colts, in what started Andrew Luck’s run of brilliance over the course of the last few weeks. If you recall, Luck executed a swing pass to fellow rookie Vic Ballard in overtime, who torpedoed his way through tackles to catch the pylon and seal the victory for the Colts.

The Titans have been as inconsistent as you can get this year, really toying with the hearts of their fans. Chris Johnson has slowly regained his stride, but the quarterback play hasn’t been great in late stages of the game. Second year QB Jake Locker, who missed the first meeting, will get the nod this Sunday in a AFC rival affair.

This is a big game for the Colts, who are the clubhouse leader in the wildcard race at (8-4). The Steelers and the Bengals are both breathing down their necks at (7-5) with one of them likely to be the odd man out. With two of their next three against division leading Houston, this is a must win for the Colts to give themselves a short term cushion.

Andrew Luck looks to carry his momentum at home and keep the Colts in the playoff hunt

Defensively, this game is a stalemate with both teams losing. Both teams should be able to do what they want on offense, both in the air and on the ground, with neither defense offering up much resistance. I think the crowd noise in Indy will be a factor for young Locker on third down passing situations with the two headed pass rush of Robert Mathis/Dwight Freeney looking to get after Locker and make his day miserable.

The Titans need some receiving help, and will have Nate Washington playing a major part of it this Sunday. Washington leads the team with 633 receiving yards and 4 TDs. The inconsistent Kenny Britt, dropped from most fantasy teams, always plays big against the Colts and I expect him to find the end zone this Sunday.

What can you say about Andrew Luck in his rookie season? Is anyone really more valuable to his team? I love the way he has handled everything this season and there is nothing elementary of gadgety about the Colts offense. He is asked to do more, with less, than any other quarterback in the league.

Honestly speaking, he has no running game and has no defense. However, he has developed a great relationship with Reggie Wayne, his tight ends, and another emerging rookie in TY Hilton who’s speed is a weapon both in YAC and in the special teams game.

I like the Colts to control this game offensively, although the Titans will be coming at the hard to make a statement and play spoiler. Luck will have another big day at home, and the defense will do just enough to salvage the victory.

If Tennessee comes out flat, this game could get ugly in a hurry because Andrew Luck plays his best football at home, and the offense has been moving the ball well the last couple of weeks. Look for Luck and Wayne to continue their hot streak

Colts win! Start Luck, Wayne, Hilton, and Rob Bironas and Chris Johnson

Sleeper appeal – Vic Ballard, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington

Heinz Field will be rocking on Sunday when Ben Roethlisberger makes his return to the Steelers after a 3 game absence due to a rib injury, as the Steelers welcome the Chargers to town. The Chargers are in the midst of a bad year, with really nothing left to play for but pride. The President already stated that both GM and Coach were going to be canned after the dismal season, so all the players will be on notice that they are playing for their jobs next year.

It hasn’t been a great year to be a Chargers fan. Philip Rivers took himself out of the elite dialogue with a regression of a season so far. It looks like he has lost of zip on his ball, and has become more of a manager with touch throws.

Running back Ryan Matthews hasn’t been anything special this year either. The oft injured back has only found the end zone once on the ground this year, to much of fantasy owners’ dismay. It doesn’t get any easier for him as the Steelers have the best defensive unit in the game in yards allowed. (259 ypg).  If you can’t throw on them, or run on them, how are you going to beat them at home this week?

Last week, Charlie Batch and that defense stunned the Baltimore Ravens on the road. The addition of Troy Polamalu was welcomed to the secondary, and is an X factor in both the run and the pass game. Look for him to return to superstar form as his legs are rested, and he’s looking to propel Pittsburgh into playoff contention.

In years passed, it’s always the healthiest team that wins championships and the Steelers appear to be getting healthy at the right time. With the return of Big Ben, the Steelers will also be getting rookie Guard David DeCastro back as well in the next few games. He has missed all of this season with a knee injury.

The Steelers will be featuring a three headed running attack, lead by Jonathon Dwyer, who found the end zone last week for his first career rushing touchdown. Fan favorite wide out Antonio Brown also made his return and was the most targeted receiver on the Steelers side. Look for the connection with Big Ben to come back to fruition in this one.

The Steelers are now healthy, and play under a greater confidence when Roethlisberger is on the field. The defense is nasty, and will force the Chargers into bad spots for much of the game. I think the Steelers win this one ugly, in a low scoring, defensive battle.

Fantasy wise – Antonio Brown, Johnny Dwyer, Heath Miller

One of the bigger games of the week in terms of playoff implications features the Dallas Cowboys travelling to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in afternoon play. Dallas is coming off a big win against the lowly Eagles, while the Bengals went on the road and took care of business in San Diego. Both teams will need a win to keep pace in the hunt for the wild card as the regular season dies down.

The Cowboys finally have a healthy DeMarco Murray running the ball, and the offense just looks better with the run/pass balance that he brings to the table. He keeps teams honest, which means Tony Romo doesn’t have to sling the ball 50 times a game – which usually results in a Cowboys loss.

The Bengals have been consistent for most of the season and feature a great defensive line that are leading the league in getting after the quarterback with 39 sacks. Dallas doesn’t have a great O-Line, but Romo is fairly elusive in the pocket, and is at his best when he’s stretching the play. Look for this to be a key matchup in the game.

Star sophomores AJ Green and Andy Dalton have been a great combo again this year and will be tested against the Cowboys secondary which ranks in top 10 with 220 yards a game allowed through the air. I keep saying it, but the Bengals need someone other than Green to step up with Mohamed Sanu out for the rest of the year. Although Dallas’ linebackers are banged up, Jermaine Gresham might have a tough day as well.

Cincinnati will need to mix in their running attack, which has been a big improvement over the last month as Green-Ellis is comfortable in the offense. It’s starting to get cold out, so teams generally have better success when they establish the run in these types of games. Look for Green-Ellis to get the ball a lot early on and into the 4^th quarter if the Bengals can maintain the lead. Dallas has proved that you can run against them, as shown last week by Eagles rookie Bryce Brown who torched them for 178 and 2 TDs.

Both teams need a win in the worst way, with Dallas needing one more in my opinion. I think this is a game that they will come back and win late, and close – maybe by a field goal. I like that Murray is back and it has opened up Jason Witten and Dez Bryant who has been great the last month.

I don’t think the Bengals will have enough offense to get the job done in this one, so for them to win, they will need to shut down Murray and force Romo to beat them. Romo is still a top 10 quarterback in the league, and doesn’t get enough credit for the good that he actually does. If they had anyone worse than him, this would be a last place team. Romo’s ability to find his playmakers, when they run the right routes, is his bread and butter. He will need to keep moving the chains to save their season and bring them closer to the first place Giants.

Give me the Cowboys in the this one

Look for Romo, Bryant, Witten, Murray, Green Ellis, and Green to have big games

Have questions? Find me on Twitter: @Blackie_Mike

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Start ‘em:

Don’t expect Luck to slow things down this weekend against a divisional opponent.

(IND) Andrew Luck vs. (TEN) – Week fourteen is here and while some people may have the playoffs locked up, others still have a chance to fight and claw there way in and can’t afford any mistakes. When making a list of top-12 quarterbacks for this weekend, Luck make his appearance surprisingly high. The Titans have allowed 25 passing touchdowns so far this season and are a great opportunity for Luck to keep the momentum going. I don’t expect him to throw for another four touchdowns, but would not be at all surprised by three. * ahem * If you need some luck this weekend getting a win, Luck could be your guy…

(NYG) Ahmad Bradshaw vs. (NO) – With Brown out Bradshaw saw a very healthy workload of 24 carries and was able to put up over 100 yards with it. This weekend Bradshaw gets the Saints and should be able to top that, hopefully with a score provided he gets around 20 carries.

(DEN) Knowshon Moreno vs. (OAK) – Moreno is likely to be a ton of start lists this week, and for good reason. Moreno is poised to a full workload (24 carries last week) against a very bad defense in the Raiders. I am not a huge fan of Moreno, but would be surprised if he doesn’t find a way to put up double-digit fantasy points this weekend.

(PHI) Jeremy Maclin vs. (TB) – This one is a little worrisome, as Maclin only really has one food game under his belt with Foles throwing the ball, but still I think I will take my chances with him in week fourteen against the Buccs. Jackson is out, the Buccs are solid against the run so Bryce Brown might not be as effective as his first two starts. Maclin could see a high number of targets in this game; owners just have to trust Foles (as scary as that sounds) to get the ball to him.

(DEN) Eric Decker vs. (OAK) – Decker was extremely disappointing last week in what looked like a good matchup for him, and in his last four starts has little more 100 or so yards with one touchdown; and it has looked a though Demaryius Thomas has proved himself to be the teams obvious number one. Despite this, I think I would give Decker another shot this Thursday night against Oakland, one of the worst teams in the league right now. Manning should be able to throw for 2-3 touchdowns, so hopefully Decker can catch number nine in the process.

Despite my bad luck with him, I am counting on a big game from Torrey on the road against the Redskins.

(BAL) Torrey Smith vs. (WAS) – I have had terrible luck with Torrey Smith this season, as he seems to enjoy tough matchups. While the Redskins are a pretty easy fantasy matchup for wide receivers, they are also a pretty tough matchup on the field. Despite, Flacco being on the road where he routinely sucks, I still think he can get Torrey the ball rough times for a solid fantasy outing.

(STL) Chris Givens vs. (BUF) – Only three touchdowns on the season for Givens, but he has been fairly consistent putting up 50 or more yards in most games and seeing more targets with Danny Amendola not playing. On Sunday, hopefully with Amendola out again if you do plan on starting him, Givens will be able to have another solid game against a bad Bills defense.

(TEN) Kenny Britt vs. (IND) – Britt has touchdowns in back to back weeks now though he has had less than 50 yards in both games. Indianapolis however has been one of the worst teams against the pass this season and could be a chance for Britt to make it three in a row with a better yardage total.

Myers could be one of the best tight ends in the coming weeks; an extremely volatile position this year.

(OAK) Brandon Myers vs. (DEN) – Myers just keeps on producing and is one of the top tight ends over the last couple of weeks, including a 130-yard game last week that came with a touchdown. He is getting a lot of his value in garbage time, but with Oakland likely to be down to Denver this weekend, the trend shouldn’t change.

Sit ‘em:

Rivers’ disappointing season is poised to continue this coming weekend against the Steelers.

(SD) Philip Rivers vs. (PIT) – Rivers only has two three-touchdown games so far in 2012 and only has three touchdowns in his last three games. I would not be expecting a whole lot from Rivers come this Sunday against the Steelers. Despite a banged of defense (as usual) the Steelers are still playing well and limiting opposing quarterbacks very well.

(MIA) Reggie Bush vs. (SF) – Bush has been a tough puzzle to solve in recent weeks, having some of his best outing against tough defenses (Seahawks) and having some bum efforts against bad ones (Bills). Despite this trend, I would not be trusting Bush as anything more than a flex play in week fourteen against the ‘49ers.

(NE) Stevan Ridley vs. (HOU) – The Patriots are on a six game streak and will be at home to the Texans, but they still have a very solid rush defense and could limit Ridley’s value this coming Monday night. I don’t see Ridley rushing for more than 80 yards and might need a goal line carry to get double-digit fantasy points.

(PIT) Mike Wallace vs. (SD) – Wallace doesn’t have a touchdown in the last three weeks, and although he has still seen seven targets in each of those games, Batch is just not the kind of quarterback to go deep often; where Wallace gets a lot of his value. I am keeping Wallace on the bench until Big Ben comes back.

With Greg Jennings back on the field Jones is unlikely to help owners much come playoffs.

(GB) James Jones vs. (DET) – With only two touchdowns in his last six games and Greg Jennings working his way back into the rotation, I don’t have much faith in Jones to be a very productive fantasy starter at this point. It is looking as though you are going to need a touchdown from Jones to get much out of him going forward.

(DAL) Miles Austin vs. (CIN) – Austin was able to come up with a touchdown catch last week, but only had two catches for 20 yards to go with it. Dez Bryan is playing exceptional lately, making the oft-injured Austin a second option more often. On the road against the Bengals this coming Sunday, I would not be expecting much from Miles Austin.

Despite his run of success, Tate will have a tough time keeping owners happy against a very solid Cardinals defense.

(SEA) Golden Tate vs. (ARZ) – Tate has been a very good fantasy starter the last month, catching four touchdowns with about 200 yards over that span, but could disappoint owners who stick with him in week fourteen against the Cardinals. The Cardinals have been dismal, losing eight straight since their 4-0 start, but that is largely due to the almost complete lack of offence, not defense. Tate might be left with a very poor fantasy day as the Seahawks have a low scoring game with Arizona.

(SD) Antonio Gates vs. (PIT) – As someone who targeted Gates in quite a few leagues, expecting to be able to get him much later than elite level tight ends and expecting a bounce back year from him; that has not been the case. Gates has a measly 400 yards on the season with only four touchdowns, two of them coming in one game; I am ready to look elsewhere for a tight end this week with Gates getting the Steelers.

Get a hold of me on Twitter: @Blackie_Mike

Start ‘em:

Newton looks to have his wagger back the last few weeks and will play at home against Atlanta next week.

(CAR) Cam Newton vs. (KC): 15/27 232 yards 3TD, 7 rushes 78 yards – A very solid week from Cam, throwing for three touchdowns and adding a very nice rushing total. Despite the loss to the Chiefs, Cam has been playing with an improved level of swagger the last two weeks, and despite a bit of a tough matchup against the Falcons next week, looks like he could be much better for owners come playoffs than he has been most of the season.

(JAX) Chad Henne vs. (BUF): 18/41 208 yards TD, INT, 3 rushes 1 yards TD – You would think Henne would be able to do a bit more with 41 pass attempts, but alas he only accounted for 209 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the loss to the Bills.

(MIA) Ryan Tannehill vs. (NE): 13/19 189 yards, 5 rushes 19 yards TD – Tannehill disappointed me once again in what looked like a good fantasy matchup on paper. I thought that Tannehill would at least be able to throw for a touchdown, hopefully more, but in the end only came up with 200 or so yards and one touchdown with his feet. Not that you would, but don’t start Tannehill anymore this season unless it is a multiple QB league.

(ATL) Jaquizz Rodgers vs. (NO): 8 rushes 43 yards – Michael Turner ran better in this game than he has most of the season, as was expected in such a nice a matchup, I was hoping that Rodgers would be able to break a couple nice runs as well but that was not the case. The game overall didn’t really have the feel I thought it would with neither teams putting up a lot of points or having a lot of success in the air, which likely would have opened up running lanes. It als didn’t help that Rodgers didn’t catch a pass in the game.

(JAX) Rashad Jennings vs. (BUF): 8 rushes 20 yards – Rashad disappointed once again, also sharing carries with rookie Montell Owens, it is obvious that the Jaguars do not trust Jennings at all. I would gladly drop Jennings and I suppose just wait MJD to hopefully come back sooner rather than later.

Another bad game for Decker, but it will be hard to sit him next week against the Raiders.

(DEN) Eric Decker vs. (TB): 2 catches 17 yards – Decker was very lame once again, as teammate Demaryius Thomas. Earlier in the season the dup had been sharing fantasy output very nicely but recently it has been all Thomas. Decker does has another very nice matchup next weekend against the Raiders, who can’t stop anyone right now, so I don’t think I would take him out of the lineup yet.

(MIA) Davone Bess vs. (NE): 1 catch 13 yards – It was Brian Hartline who had the majority of the yards for the Miami receiving corps in the loss to the Patriots. Tannehill didn’t throw for close to the amount of yards I was hoping/expecting from him, and in the end Bess was left with an extremely disappointing one catch. I still like Bess in PPR leagues as this is likely an anomaly, but would not be starting in anything but the deepest of standard leagues.

Gresham could be a bright spot in the darkness that is the TE position going into the fantasy playoffs.

(CIN) Jermaine Gresham vs. (DEN): 4 catches 35 yards TD – After a very disappointing effort from the running backs and wide receivers, we finally have some touchdowns from the tight ends. With Sanu out for the season, I think Gresham can really be a great every week starter going into the fantasy playoffs. The yardage totals haven’t been the best for Gresham so far this season but with the volatility of the TE position he is poised to be extremely consistent.

(MIN) Kyle Rudolph vs. (GB): 6 catches 51 yards TD – Three straight games now with a touchdown for Rudolph, and despite what looks like a tough matchup next week against the Bears, I would still be starting him. As mentioned above the tight end position has been very rough and Rudolph could be one of the best options moving forward. If Percy Harvin remains out things are even better for Rudolph.

Sit ‘em:

(TEN) Jake Locker vs. (HOU): 21/45 309 yards TD, 3INT, 4 rushes 38 yards – Over 300 yards for the young quarterback, but with only one touchdown thrown and three interceptions, his stats fantasy output was stifled. Keeps your eyes on Locker though as he has the Colts next week who have really struggled against the pass.

Wilson looked extremely poised in a big win over the Bears, and continues to put up good fantasy numbers.

(SEA) Russell Wilson vs. (CHI): 23/37 293 yards 2TD, 9 rushes 71 yards – Wilson keeps on impressing the football community, leading his Seahawks to a late win over the Bears, having himself a pretty nice fantasy outing in the process. Despite his recent success I would reconsider starting him next week against the Cardinals if you have another comparable option.

Another 100+ yard game from the Law Firm, going to be hard to bench this guy anytime soon.

(CIN) BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs. (SD): 25 rushes 118 yards, 4 catches 14 yards – The Law Firm had a surprisingly good game against what it usually a pretty solid Chargers defense. He did not score a touchdown but was still able to total 132 yards in the effort for his third straight 100 yards rushing performance. He has what could also be a double-digit fantasy effort matchup next weekend at home against the Cowboys.

(DEN) Knowshon Moreno vs. (TB): 20 rushes 69 yards, 4 catches 14 yards – Knowshon got the workload we all hoped for, but as I expected was unable to do much with it. Look for Moreno to have much better game this coming Thursday night against the Raiders.

(CHI) Michael Bush vs. (SEA): 7 rushes 39 yards – Bush’s stats give him a very nice 5.6 yard per carry average, but with Forte in the lineup and getting a whopping 21 touches, Bush just did not get enough chances to have an impact; Forte ran for a 3.1 ypc average. He gets the Vikings next week, whom he ran for two touchdowns against just the other week, but won’t be seeing the 21 carries he got in that game, and will also be on the road.

(ARZ) Larry Fitzgerald vs. (NYJ): 1 catch 23 yards – Things suck for Larry and his fantasy owners. I would not be starting Fitzgerald until Lindley proves he can get him the ball just for one game.

(BAL) Dennis Pitta vs. (PIT): 1 catch 19 yards – After a bit of a resurgence the last few weeks, Pitta was very disappointing once again for anyone who started him catching just one pass. Pitta does not look like a safe start next week either with the Ravens on the road where quarterback Joe Flacco almost always struggles.

So without any further adieu, I will quickly break down the lines, make a pick and express my confidence in them

Arizona vs NY Jets (-7)  I don’t care who the quarterback is for the Cardinals, there is no way the Jets should be favored by more than a field goal over anyone. The Jets were absolutely embarrassed last week, so much so that Fireman Ed gave up on them. The Cardinals don’t move the ball well, but Beanie Wells looked good last week near the goal line, and Larry Fitzgerald has been getting more looks. I expect the Jets will win, but give me the Cardinals to keep it under 7

Carolina (-4) vs Kansas City – The Chiefs will have an emotional game at home after the tragic shooting yesterday at the practice field. Carolina has been playing better than their record shows, and Cam had a great game against the Eagles on Monday night. Short week, with travel – I still like the Panthers to win this one with the points.

Houston Texans (-7.5) vs Tennessee Titans – Houston has been finding a way to get the job done. They have a great team on both side of the ball and will need to control the defensive line against Tennessee which is one of the better lines in the league. The Texans are going to win this game, but it’s going to be closer than you think. The Titans cover the spread

Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions (-6). This line keeps getting higher for Detroit. It opened at (-4) earlier this week and now its (-6). I like Detroit at home in this one to win it, they have more to play for. Unfortunately, the Colts have been America’s darling and have been griding out victories and with the exception of their opener and New England, have kept the games close either way. They controlled their last two games, but Megatron is a different animal – Lions win, but Colts keep it under 6.

Jacksonville vs Buffalo (-6) – Chad Henne has all but cemented himself as the teams starter going forward. He’s been establishing a nice rapport with Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon, and always have been able to move the ball downfield. I don’t think the Jags will get it done, but they will cover this 6 point spread. Bills win at home, but the Jags will have the lead late in this game. Give me the over in this game too (43.5) <—- Safest bet of the day

Minnesota at Green Bay (-9) The Packers were dominated in Prime Time against the Giants. Aaron Rodgers is money against the Vikings with an 11Td/0 Ints in his last 4 games. I think Adrian Peterson has a great game, but I don’t trust Christian Ponder without Percy Harvin’s play making. I don’t think they will be able to score the points necessary to keep up with the Packers. Give me the Packers and the points at home!

New England (-9) vs Miami - I never take a road team favored by more than a touchdown. It is the Patriots time, and they are playing great football after Thanksgiving. Ryan Tannehill has a statement game and keeps this one close – but The Patriots will win in an offensive affair. Give me the Patriots to win, Dolphins to cover, and the Over (51.5)

San Francisco 49ers (-8) vs St Louis Rams – So, their first game was a tie while the favored 49′ers were at home. The Rams actually match up quite well with San Fran and that number is really high for a road team that doesn’t score a lot. Colin Kaepernick adds a new dimension to the offense, but I don’t think it’s enough to cover the number. I like San Fran to win this game on the road, but it wouldn’t suprise me if the Rams keep it close and win it late. I will take the Rams to cover, but the 49′ers to win. Also, give me the over in the 41points

Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears (-3.5) The Bears don’t lose with Cutler (15-5 record) and the Seahawks don’t win on the road (unless you are the Panthers). If this was in Seattle, I would take the Seahawks outright as they match up on paper well. Matt Forte is hurting for the Bears, but is expected to play, albeit limited. Brandon Marshall is going to have a rough time against Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas – so someone else will have to step up for the Bears. I like the Bears to win this, but the Seattle will cover the number.

Tampa Bay at Denver Broncos (-8)  – Peyton Manning will carve up the Bucs league wors secondary in a great game. Josh Freeman will do his part to move the ball and Vincent Jackson will have a big game. Give me the Broncos to win this one in a thriller, but the Bucs cover it.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs San Diego Chargers – Classic match up of hot versus not. San Diego isn’t playing terribly, and they usually throw up a fight against a better team. For Cincy, they need this game to put themselves in the playoff picture. I really want to take San Diego in this one, as they need to rebound and I think they win at home. One of those games that make no sense to me, just go with it! Chargers win

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs Oakland Raiders  – Yes, the Browns beat Pittsburgh with Charlie Batch. But even with 8 turnovers, they couldn’t do anything with it. I like the Raiders to win this one at home and Carson Palmer gets Darren McFadden back to ease the pain. Raiders win, Raiders win! Give me the over on the 38 point (o/U) as well!

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-8) All their games are within a touchdown, and I expect the same in this game. Charlie Batch will have a better outing today (can’t get worse than 8 turnovers) Johnathon Dwyer gets the start at running back and does well. Ravens are great at home, where Flacco has much better success. Steelers keep it under a touchdown, but the Ravens win!

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) Dallas can’t put anyone away by more than a touchdown and this game will be no different. Dallas will put the pressure on them, and they will score some points. Look for Bryce Brown and Jeremy Maclin to have big games for the Eagles. The Cowboys win, Eagles keep it close and take the over! 43.5 is a low mark for this one)

Monday Night Parlay – New York Giants (-3) vs Washington Redskins - RG3 made himself known to the NFC East in their first meeting. Eli Manning isn’t as good on the road in Washington, but he is coming off a great game against Green Bay in a playoff style game, and has his receivers healthy at the right time. I really like the Giants to establish themselves as the most complete team in football in this one. Giants win, and Eli has a magical performance.

Reality. So far this year, Johnson (also known as Megatron) has racked up 1257 receiving yards. This is 152 yards more than Reggie Wayne, the receiver with the next best yardage total. Don’t get me wrong; Megatron has seen his fair share of struggles this year. Including, only scoring 1 touchdown in the first eight games this season. However, at this point in the season there is no receiver I would rather have than Megatron. That’s because Johnson has gone on an absolute rampage the past three games, putting up a touchdown and at least 140 receiving yards in each game.

Unfortunately, even Megatron can’t transform the Lions into a playoff team.

Let’s take a look at how Megatron matches up with the competition. His closest competitor for best receiver in fantasy football is A.J. Green (henceforth known as Optimus Prime). While Megatron has 250 more yards receiving, Optimus Prime has 10 total touchdowns (6 more than Megatron). Even though Optimus Prime has been an incredibely consistent receiver so far this year, there is no denying how good Megatron has been the past few weeks. If you value consistency, then Optimus Prime might get your vote as best receiver in the NFL. However, if you’re like me and you value taking a little risk for the potential of a big reward, then the clear choice for best receiver in fantasy football is Calvin Johnson.

Have questions? Find me on Twitter: @Blackie_Mike

Start ‘em:

(CAR) Cam Newton vs. (KC) – Newton looked much better on Monday night than he had most of the season, granted it was against the lowly Eagles, whom look worse with each passing week. He doesn’t have the nicest matchup this coming week but follows that up with the Chargers, Raiders and Saints; all of who give up lots yards to quarterbacks.

Henne has somehow turned the Jaguars into a team with quite a few quality fantasy starters, even with MJD out.

(JAX) Chad Henne vs. (BUF) – Henne had another solid week in week twelve and has quickly turned the Jaguars into a team that can win and has quite a few fantasy threats. Cecil Shorts had been playing well all season but now Justin Blackmon is breaking out with Henne under centre. As a Dolphins fan I know all about Chad Henne and don’t trust him to keep this pace up but would still ride the hot hand if I needed to. Against the Bills Henne could go for another 250+ with 2 TDs.

(MIA) Ryan Tannehill vs. (NE) – I gave Tannehill a spot on this list a few weeks ago in a very nice matchup against the Titans, but he was terrible in the game, throwing for less than 200 yards with three interceptions. I am going to try my luck again this week with Ryan, hoping he can continue the high level of play from last week against the Seahawks and keep the momentum going for the ‘Fins. I am hoping Tannehill paces 300 yards to go with a touchdown or two.

Rodgers will be able to showcase hi speed and elusiveness against the New Orleans Saints poor tacklers.

(ATL) Jaquizz Rodgers vs. (NO) – Rodgers scored his first rushing touchdown of the season last week and will look to make it two in a row when he and his Falcons get to take on the Saints in Atlanta. Michael Turner looks sluggish and the Saints can’t stop the run so Rodgers will have a great chance to turn his 8-12 carries into a nice fantasy tally.

(JAX) Rashad Jennings vs. (BUF) – What a crappy day for Jalen Parmele, who had over 50 total yards in the first half before leaving the game with an injury, letting Jennings get the carries again after being benched. In the end Jennings got a touchdown carry and some decent yardage. He obviously isn’t a very good running back seeing as the Jaguars were forced to bench him, but it looks like he will be getting the opportunities until MJD or Parmele can return.

Decker has a great chance to grab touchdown number nine of the season against the Buccaneers secondary.

(DEN) Eric Decker vs. (TB) – With only 87 total yards over the last two weeks, Decker hasn’t been seeing a ton of targets (13), but was still able to grab a TD in week eleven (number 8 on the season). The Broncos – Buccs matchup this weekend has the potential to be a high scoring affair, so I would still make sure to find room for Decker in my lineup. I expect him to grab touchdown number nine of the season.

(MIA) Davone Bess vs. (NE) – Bess had a season high 129 yards against the Seahawks last year and will be hoping to bring that momentum into a divisional matchup at home against the Patriots. Tannehill, Bess’ quarterback is also on the list but I feel safer about starting Bess, as he is a great route runner with some of the most consistent hands in the league. Bess is an even better PPR option.

(CIN) Jermaine Gresham vs. (SD) – With news breaking that Sanu will have to have surgery in a strained foot, everyone will need to make sure to find a replacement for him this coming week. Andrew Hawkins is also out so the team tight end Jermaine Gresham could see a lot more work against the Chargers. He has tons of talent and could haul in a touchdown in back to back weeks for the first time this season.

Rudolph might be the best receiving option for Ponder if HArvin can’t play in week thirteen.

(MIN) Kyle Rudolph vs. (GB) – The Packers will be at home and coming off a big loss they will be angry. I almost guarantee the Viking will be playing from behind, meaning Ponder will be slinging the ball for better or for worse. With Percy Harvin also dealing with injury woes, Kyle Rudolph could end up being the top receiving option.

Sit ‘em:

The Houston secondary isn’t its strong suit, but they are going to give it their all against the division rival Titans and their young quarterback.

(TEN) Jake Locker vs. (HOU) – The Texans have been allowing quite a few yards and stats to opposing quarterbacks lately, and will get the talented young Jake Locker this coming weekend. Locker did however just struggle against the Jaguars defense, throwing a pair of interception in a loss. I am not trusting Locker to throw more than 250 with a lone touchdown against Houston.

(SEA) Russell Wilson vs. (CHI) – Russell Wilson is going to have a very tough time putting up fantasy pints against the Chicago Bears in week thirteen. Also, Wilson tends to struggle more on the road (minus his solid effort against Miami last week), I would not want to trust him against the Bears in Chicago.

(CIN) BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs. (SD) – The Law Firm had a great game in week twelve going for more than 100 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, but is going to have a much harder time against the Chargers run stopper who have been pretty solid all year long.  I am expecting something close to 60 yards against the Chargers, and likely without a touchdown.

Moreno is a must-add if available but has a very tough matchup this week against the Buccaneers.

(DEN) Knowshon Moreno vs. (TB) – Moreno is going to be one of the most picked up layers off the waiver wire this week, with teammate Ronnie Hillman likely being one of the most dropped. Moreno is certainly worth the waiver claim, as he seems to have the starting role and has pretty nice schedule. However, that nice schedule doesn’t start until next week; the Buccs are one of the best teams in the league against the rush.

(CHI) Michael Bush vs. (SEA) – It is still early in the week but Matt Forte was injured this past weekend, meaning Michael Bush might be the starting running back for the Bears. While Bush is a very talented running back capable of being a starter for many teams in this league, but won’t be getting many goal line carries against the Seahawks.

Things just keep getting worse for Fitzgerald, who has only been able to bring in 3 of the his 19 targets from the past two weeks.

(ARZ) Larry Fitzgerald vs. (NYJ) – Poor Larry Fitzgerald. In his past two games, (Ryan Lindley as QB) he has been targeted 19 times, but has only been able to come up with 3 catches for 42 yards. As long as Lindley is starting and looking as bad as he has, I would be looking elsewhere than poor Fitzy for a starting wide receiver.

(KC) Dwayne Bowe vs. (DEN) – Similar to Larry’s situation, Bowe is a supremely talented wide receiver with no one to get him the ball.  He doesn’t have a touchdown catch in the last seen games is going to make it eight against the Broncos.

(BAL) Dennis Pitta vs. (PIT) – Pitta had two touchdowns in his first three weeks of the season before going silent, but how has two touchdowns in his last three games, perking the ears and eyes of all those fantasy owners who gave up on him. Against Pittsburgh though, a team that is always tough against quarterbacks, I do not think Flacco finds Pitta for a touchdown.

Get a hold of me on Twitter: @Blackie_Mike

Start ‘em:

With the bye behind him and a great game against the Packers in the books, Eli should be ready to lead your fantasy team into the playoffs.

(NYG) Eli Manning vs. (GB): 16/30 249 yards 3TD, 2 rushes 12 yards – Manning and the Giants dominated the Packers on Sunday night, scoring 31 first half points. Manning through three touchdown passes to go with his 261 total yards for what was finally a good fantasy outing from the Giants leader. The Giants have an even better matchup next weekend against the Redskins in what is a must start for Eli.

(SEA) Russell Wilson vs. (MIA) 21/27 224 yards 2TD, 5 rushes 38 yards – A pretty solid effort from Wilson once again, putting up good numbers with his arm to go with 38 more yards on the ground to help out; I believe it was actually his best fantasy effort on the road. I like having Russell

(SF) Colin Kaepernick vs. (NO) 16/25 251 yards TD, INT, 6 rushes 27 yards TD – Kaepernick got the nod for the ‘49ers and will get the start for the rest of the season barring an injury from the sounds of it. In a juicy matchup against the Saints Kaepernick did not disappoint, accounting for 278 total yards with a pair of touchdowns, one with his legs. Kaepernick is definitely a guy to get off the waiver wire if still available and should provide a good start in certain matchups.

(JAX) Jalen Parmele vs. (TEN) 8 rush 45 yards, 1 catch 7 yards – Parmele was off to a nice start with more than 50 total yards before leaving the game with an injury. In his place Rashad Jennings got the carries and scored a touchdown; damn.

With more than 130 yards and a touchdown on the day, Vereen was even better than I expected on the Thursday night.

(NE) Shane Vereen vs. (NYJ) 10 rushes 42 yards, 2 catches 91 yards TD – Vereen was one of my best calls this week, taking a catch for more than 80 yards for a score. I don’t see him being a very valuable start in too man matchups the rest of the season but sure was dynamite for anyone who started him this week.

(NO) Darren Sproles vs. (SF) 7 catches 65 yards – Sproles did almost nothing until the fourth quarter when Drew Brees through to him a few times as the Saints tried to catch up to the ‘49ers. Sproles stat line would have been alright in a PPR league but was no better than a mediocre flex play unfortunately this week.

(NYG) Hakeem Nicks vs. (GB): 5 catches 77 yards TD – Nicks had his first touchdown of the season since week two, and has another great opportunity for another next weekend against Washington. Like Eli, get Nicks back in your lineup if you didn’t already this past weekend.

(DET) Ryan Broyles vs. (HOU) 6 catches 126 yards – Broyles had a very nice day going for 126 yards in the controversial (the rule is terrible) loss to the Texans. Broyles didn’t have the touchdown that would have put him over the top but still impressed me. Titus Young might have some competition for the number two receiver spot the rest of the season.

With four touchdowns in his last three games and a target like A.J. Green across the field, Sanu looks like a great addition to any fantasy squad.

(CIN) Mohammed Sanu vs. (OAK) 5 catches 29 yards 2TD – Sanu continues to score touchdowns, being short-range version of Josh Gordon from earlier this season. I think he might have cemented himself as the number two wide receiver behind A.J. Green and has another very nice matchup next week against the Chargers; I know I will be tempted to keep him in my lineups.

(JAX) Justin Blackmon vs. (TEN) 5 catches 62 yards TD, 1 rush 12 yards – Blackmon had his second straight week and looks to be a serious fantasy threat now that the Jaguars have gone with the former Dolphin Chad Henne as their starting quarterback. Cecil Shorts is also playing at a very high level; so Blackmon is not the only wideout defenses have to account for. I was hesitant to invest in Blackmon after just one big game but am now thinking he might be able to help people make the playoffs.

Sit ‘em:

(HOU) Matt Schaub vs. (DET): 29/48 315 yards TD, INT – Schaub had an alright day throwing for more than 300 yards but with only one touchdown and an interception to go with it, there was definitely something left to be desired. Obviously not a terrible day but nowhere close to what he did the week before.

Leshoure ended up with a solid game due to an early touchdown, but the Texans defence still showed why it has been so dominant this season.

(DET) Mikel Leshoure vs. (HOU): 12 rushes 32 yards TD – An early touchdown, the first rushing touchdown of the year allowed by the Texans gave Leshoure two thirds of his total points as he only ran for 32 yards the entire game. Houston defence has been solid all year against the run and this just showcases that, despite a first uarter touchdown, Leshoure still couldn’t get 10 fantasy points.

(MIA) Reggie Bush vs. (SEA): 14 rushes 87 yards TD, 1 catch -5 yards – Much to the my delight as a Dolphins fan, Bush actually had a good game against the Seahawks after having a terrible game against the Bills; figure that out. Reggie is a hard man to figure out but a solid game against the Seahawks is definitely a sign of improvement over his play the few weeks before.

(NYJ) Shonn Greene / Bilal Powell vs. (NE): 14 rushes 70 yards 1 catch 9 yards, Lost Fumble / 12 rushes 40 yards TD, 2 catches 13 yards – Green had a crap day with only 79 total yards to go along with his lost fumble, but Powell on the other hand was actually a good start option with his 53 yards and a touchdown. I wouldn’t be looking to start either Jets running back but would rather have Powell at this point; I have never thought Greene to be a very good running back.

Even with Gronkowski out Lloyd was almost invisible in the Patriots 59-point effort; he just might be waiver wire material.

(NE) Brandon Lloyd vs. (NYJ): 3 catches 26 yards – Lloyd is almost droppable to me at this point; even with Gronkowski out the Patriots don’t seem to need to include Lloyd in the playbook to much. Lloyd does what the Patriots need him to do by luring defenses downfield while seeing about 5-7 targets per game. He plays his role very well, but it not getting enough action to warrant any fantasy starts.

In just his second healthy start of the season Garcon had his second solid fantasy performance and looks ready to help the Redskins and his owners make a run for the playoffs.

(WAS) Pierre Garcon vs. (DAL) 5 catches 93 yards TD – Garcon had a great game against Dallas, catching jut one of the four touchdowns that RGIII threw. With such a dynamic quarterback getting him the ball and such a explosive skill set, Garcon is worthy of sticking back in the fantasy lineup, even if it is a week late. In only two real games this season, Garcon has two excellent results.

(CLE) Josh Gordon vs. (PIT) 4 catches 60 yards – Another week without a touchdown for Gordon. He does have a much better matchup this coming week against the Raiders, but still might not be worth a fantasy start if quarterback Brandon Weedon is out, which he just might be.  I would definitely drop Gordon for Sanu if given the chance going into the final couple weeks.

(OAK) Darrius Heyward-Bey vs. (CIN) 0 catches – No catches on just four targets, wasn’t much going on for DHB on Sunday afternoon; there wasn’t really a whole lot going right for the Raiders in general on Sunday as they were dismantled by the Bengals. I still see value in DHB going forward though as the Raiders look terrible and will be playing from behind.

Welcome to Week 12 of the NFL. There are some HUGE games in the NFC today; Packers-Giants, 49ers-Saints, Falcons-Bucs. Lots of potential to see some fantasy fireworks. So, surround yourself with a smorgasbord of snacks, a dozen cold ones and tell the family you’re going into hibernations.. Week 12 is a must see!

 Let’s take a look at a couple now.

 (9-1) Atlanta Falcons at (6-4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 First, let me say that I am in love with the Tampa offence right now, so if this post if tilted towards the Bucs, you know why.

 Josh Freeman seems unstoppable right now. Despite a slow start in Carolina last week, Freeman turned on the heat on to lead his team back in the 4^thquarter, and eventually winning in OT. Freeman is as hot as any QB in the league, and should be a must start in any format.

Freeman looks to go Falcon hunting this Sunday

 The Bucs compliment their QB with the best rookie RB in the game, and one of the hottest overall, Doug Martin. He has a streak of 6 weeks eclipsing the 100 total yards mark, and 7 touchdowns. If you were able to trade for Martin, in a buy low situation around week 5 or 6, congratulations, you are the winner of the Trade Rape award.

 Don’t let the 9-1 record fool you, Atlanta is a good team, but has its weaknesses and can be beat. I see Atlanta more as a 6-4 team at the moment. With narrowly escaping with victories against Carolina, Oakland and Arizona, the Falcons are very lucky they aren’t head to head with the Saints for the division lead.

 Atlanta is coming off a lack luster performance in Arizona, including 5, count ‘em, 5 interceptions from Matt Ryan. The Cards do have a good defence, but Matt Ryan needs to be better if he wants to keep the Falcons ahead of the surging Saints in the NFC South.

 Julio Jones is questionable for today’s game, which is causing all sorts of headaches for owners. Julio has been dy-no-mite on the road this season, so losing him would be a key loss. However, with the Bucs pass defence sitting last in the league, don’t expect Ryan to hold back on throwing. Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are two of the best in the league in their positions. Looks for them to have MONSTER games.

 Picking a winner is tough for this one. The hot Bucs, at home, or the never say die Falcons. I’m picking the Bucs.

(7-2-1) San Francisco 49ers at (5-5) New Orleans Saints

 A rematch of the NFC Divisional game last year, the Saints look for redemption in the late afternoon game.

 New Orleans has been on a roll lately, winning 5 of their last 6, averaging 29.5 points per game in that stretch. Drew Brees finally appears to be on the same page as his receivers, and in true Sean Payton fashion, he continues to distribute the ball to any, and every, receiver on the field, hitting 9 different people last week.

Marques Colston has been a strong fantasy play in recent weeks.

 Marques Colston leads the team in receiving yards, but Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham aren’t far behind with 638 and 562 respectively.

 San Franciso is coming off a dominant win against the Chicago Bears on Monday night. Both the offence and defence we clicking in the 32-7 win. But the big story for San Fran will be who will start at QB. Colin Kaepernick had a solid game on Monday. His numbers were good, he made smart decisions, managed the ball well and in the end, earned the respect of his team mates. It is rumoured that Alex Smith will be medically cleared from a concussion he sufferance two weeks ago, so it will be interesting to see who Harbaugh names as the starter.

 Either way, it’s the defence, for the 49ers, that need to step up in this one. Rarely do teams match those kinds of performance. Look for a small let down for the 49ers, and for the Saints to avenge their playoff loss of last season. Saints win.

Disagree? Post a comment below.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Talent wise, the Falcons are the much better squad and they get Julio Jones at about 80% strength and will most likely be limited. This is good news for a Bucs squad which is horrid against the pass. Jones is much better this year on the road then at home, but the Bucs are hot offensively right now. Vincent Jackson is playing his best football, and RB Doug Martin is a catalyst. I like Tampa to play a tough game and beat the Falcons at home. Tampa with the upset

Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) - This is going to be a shoot out and the over is set at (51.5) Andrew Luck plays better at home and so does his defense. Fitzpatrick travels well with his running game which will have Fred Jackson back in the line up. Unfortunately for them, they haven’t won a game when he has played this year. That’s not the reason why I like this game, but I like a young Colts squad to win this game late – but don’t cover the points. Bills cover, but Indy wins!

Denver Broncos (-11.5) at Kansas City Chiefs – Surest heads up bet on the table as the Broncos are too talented, and have already pounded them once this year in Denver. Brady Quinn gets the nod for the Chiefs again in this one, and will try to get Jamaal Charles going early if they want to make it close. I like the Broncos with the points!

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears (pickem) – No line on this game yet as Jay Cutler hasn’t been named the starter in which I expect he will be. I’ll take the better quarterback and better defense in this one. Bears win in a tight game

AJ Green looks for another touchdown today against the Raiders

Oakland Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) Carson Palmer’s makes his return to Cincy who is much better off without him. The Raiders haven’t been travelling well East, and it will be cold, physical, and a great test for the Bengals defense. I like the Bengals to win, but they aren’t good enough to cover the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) vs Cleveland Browns – Charlie Batch is 5-2 as a spot starter for the Steelers, and the Steelers have won 16 of the last 17 games against the Browns. The Browns will play them tough, and give them everything they can handle. However, the Steelers are the better all around team and will do just enough to come out with this one. They need this game heading into game two versus the Ravens. Steelers win

Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins are coming off an ugly loss 10 days ago, and the Seahawks are coming off a bye. The bye is good news for the Seahawks, as they are a traditional bad road team. They have such a home advantage, but have only mustered 7 road wins in the Pete Carroll era. For some reason, I like Seattle in this one. I like the match ups, and I like Marshawn Lynch fully rested and healthy. Seattle wins, but doesn’t cover.

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars – Jake Locker vs Chad Henne doesn’t sound like a great match up, but they cant both move the ball. A lot of public bets are on the Jags as the home dog this week, but I think the Titans are too talented, and I don’t believe in the Jags starting RB Jalen Parmele. Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt carry the Titans to a win in this one – Titans win on the road

Baltimore Ravens (-2) vs San Diego Chargers – The Ravens don’t play well on the road, and the Chargers have their season on the line. The Chargers line up well, and handled them in the same spot last year. I do think they Ravens figure it out, and play well on the road, and there defense comes to play and helps assist in the win. Ravens win and cover the 2.

San Francisco 49′ers (-1.5) vs New Orleans Saints – Such a tough game to call as rookie QB Colin Kaepernick destroyed a good Bears team who played Man Defense. Saints give up a lot of yards and points, but have been improving in scheme and forcing some turnovers. The Saints are at home and have Drew Brees and have been scary this year. They scored on the 49′ers in the playoffs in January, and that was on the road. Season on the line, I should like the Saints – but I do like the 49′ers to control this game and move the ball on the road. 49′ers win in a classic.

St Louis Rams vs Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) The Cardinals are on their 3rd QB of the year, and the Rams are coming off getting beat down by the Jets. I like the Cardinals at home, with no real rhyme or reason. An AFC rivalry game, and their season is on the line.  Arizona wins (Larry Fitzgerald sighting)

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants (-2) – I really like the Giants in this one. The line is nice, they are coming off a bye and have forgotten about the last month of Eli Manning’s play at quarterback. He has Hakeem Nicks fully healthy against a defense that will be without Clay Matthews again. Aaron Rodgers will have a nice day, but will be on the run for most of it. Another classic game, but Manning wins it late. Giants win

Monday Night Special – Carolina Panthers (3-) vs Philadelphia Eagles – Cam Newton and the Panthers have been playing better, but can’t beat good teams. Look for a slug fest with the Eagles who are playing for pride right now at home. If the crowd turns on them early, look for the Panthers to win the battle in the trenches and roll. Take the Panthers and the points.

There you have it – hopefully we pull out some money this week and can build on the 13-1 record from a week ago. Know your limits, and remember that the game is played on the field, and not in the stat room! Have a great betting day, and good luck on your picks and in your pools!

See you in Week 13!

Lynchy