The Lynchpin is ready to go for the Week 12 match ups this week in what is a very difficult week to pick games, as there are a lot of interesting match ups, and playoff implications in play today. There are also some great rivalry games, which throws everything about stats, logic, and talent out the window. There are also a lot of road favourites this week, as well as some public bets that I can’t really figure out. So, without further adieu, here is the Week 12 edition of the Lynchpin – hoping to build on the 2-1 record from Thanksgiving.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Talent wise, the Falcons are the much better squad and they get Julio Jones at about 80% strength and will most likely be limited. This is good news for a Bucs squad which is horrid against the pass. Jones is much better this year on the road then at home, but the Bucs are hot offensively right now. Vincent Jackson is playing his best football, and RB Doug Martin is a catalyst. I like Tampa to play a tough game and beat the Falcons at home. Tampa with the upset
Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) - This is going to be a shoot out and the over is set at (51.5) Andrew Luck plays better at home and so does his defense. Fitzpatrick travels well with his running game which will have Fred Jackson back in the line up. Unfortunately for them, they haven’t won a game when he has played this year. That’s not the reason why I like this game, but I like a young Colts squad to win this game late – but don’t cover the points. Bills cover, but Indy wins!
Denver Broncos (-11.5) at Kansas City Chiefs – Surest heads up bet on the table as the Broncos are too talented, and have already pounded them once this year in Denver. Brady Quinn gets the nod for the Chiefs again in this one, and will try to get Jamaal Charles going early if they want to make it close. I like the Broncos with the points!
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears (pickem) – No line on this game yet as Jay Cutler hasn’t been named the starter in which I expect he will be. I’ll take the better quarterback and better defense in this one. Bears win in a tight game
Oakland Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) Carson Palmer’s makes his return to Cincy who is much better off without him. The Raiders haven’t been travelling well East, and it will be cold, physical, and a great test for the Bengals defense. I like the Bengals to win, but they aren’t good enough to cover the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) vs Cleveland Browns – Charlie Batch is 5-2 as a spot starter for the Steelers, and the Steelers have won 16 of the last 17 games against the Browns. The Browns will play them tough, and give them everything they can handle. However, the Steelers are the better all around team and will do just enough to come out with this one. They need this game heading into game two versus the Ravens. Steelers win
Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins are coming off an ugly loss 10 days ago, and the Seahawks are coming off a bye. The bye is good news for the Seahawks, as they are a traditional bad road team. They have such a home advantage, but have only mustered 7 road wins in the Pete Carroll era. For some reason, I like Seattle in this one. I like the match ups, and I like Marshawn Lynch fully rested and healthy. Seattle wins, but doesn’t cover.
Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars – Jake Locker vs Chad Henne doesn’t sound like a great match up, but they cant both move the ball. A lot of public bets are on the Jags as the home dog this week, but I think the Titans are too talented, and I don’t believe in the Jags starting RB Jalen Parmele. Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt carry the Titans to a win in this one – Titans win on the road
Baltimore Ravens (-2) vs San Diego Chargers – The Ravens don’t play well on the road, and the Chargers have their season on the line. The Chargers line up well, and handled them in the same spot last year. I do think they Ravens figure it out, and play well on the road, and there defense comes to play and helps assist in the win. Ravens win and cover the 2.
San Francisco 49’ers (-1.5) vs New Orleans Saints – Such a tough game to call as rookie QB Colin Kaepernick destroyed a good Bears team who played Man Defense. Saints give up a lot of yards and points, but have been improving in scheme and forcing some turnovers. The Saints are at home and have Drew Brees and have been scary this year. They scored on the 49’ers in the playoffs in January, and that was on the road. Season on the line, I should like the Saints – but I do like the 49’ers to control this game and move the ball on the road. 49’ers win in a classic.
St Louis Rams vs Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) The Cardinals are on their 3rd QB of the year, and the Rams are coming off getting beat down by the Jets. I like the Cardinals at home, with no real rhyme or reason. An AFC rivalry game, and their season is on the line. Arizona wins (Larry Fitzgerald sighting)
Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants (-2) – I really like the Giants in this one. The line is nice, they are coming off a bye and have forgotten about the last month of Eli Manning’s play at quarterback. He has Hakeem Nicks fully healthy against a defense that will be without Clay Matthews again. Aaron Rodgers will have a nice day, but will be on the run for most of it. Another classic game, but Manning wins it late. Giants win
Monday Night Special – Carolina Panthers (3-) vs Philadelphia Eagles – Cam Newton and the Panthers have been playing better, but can’t beat good teams. Look for a slug fest with the Eagles who are playing for pride right now at home. If the crowd turns on them early, look for the Panthers to win the battle in the trenches and roll. Take the Panthers and the points.
There you have it – hopefully we pull out some money this week and can build on the 13-1 record from a week ago. Know your limits, and remember that the game is played on the field, and not in the stat room! Have a great betting day, and good luck on your picks and in your pools!
See you in Week 13!